Bayesian construction of a long-term vent opening probability map in the Long Valley volcanic region (CA, USA)

The Long Valley volcanic region is an active volcanic area situated at the eastern base of the Sierra Nevada escarpment and dominated by a 32 km wide resurgent caldera created ~760 ka. Eruptions after 180 ka have been localized at Mammoth Mountain on the western rim of the caldera and along the Mono-Inyo Craters volcanic chain stretching about 45 km northward. Three different probability models have been developed and then combined in a logic...