Current and future trends in tuberculosis incidence in New York City: a dynamic modelling analysis

BackgroundAfter steady decline since the 1990s, tuberculosis incidence in New York City and throughout the USA has plateaued. We aimed to explore the major drivers of the flattening of tuberculosis incidence in New York City and to project the future trajectory of the tuberculosis epidemic in the absence of any additional intervention.MethodsWe developed a compartmental transmission model of tuberculosis in New York City. The model was...