Real-Time Performance of a Multi-Model Ensemble-Based Extended Range Forecast System in Predicting the 2014 Monsoon Season Based on NCEP-CFSv2

The real-time validation of any strategy to forecast the Indian summer monsoon rainfall requires comprehensive assessment of performance of the model on sub-seasonal scale. The multi-model ensemble (MME) approach based on the NCEP-CFS version 2 models, as developed and reported earlier, has been employed to forecast the 2014 monsoon season on the extended range scale with 3-4 pentad lead time (where a pentad corresponds to five-day average). The...