Reduction in Uncertainty in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts over the North Indian Ocean

Over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) basin, the uncertainty in tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast is depicted by constructing a cone of uncertainty (COU) around the forecast track for the benefit of disaster managers in their decision-making, especially with respect to area of evacuation. The COU is constructed by drawing a tangent to the circles with the radii equal to average track forecast errors during the past five years for forecast times...