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The Influence of model fidelity and uncertainties in the conceptual design of Arctic maritime transport systems

Published on Jan 2, 2017
· DOI :10.1080/09377255.2017.1312856
Martin Bergström3
Estimated H-index: 3
,
Stein Ove Erikstad11
Estimated H-index: 11
,
Sören Ehlers14
Estimated H-index: 14
Abstract
ABSTRACTThis paper helps the designer of an arctic maritime transport system (AMTS) to determine an appropriate level of model fidelity with regards to the estimation of transport capacity and ice ...
  • References (8)
  • Citations (5)
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References8
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When designing an arctic cargo ship, it is necessary to consider multiple stochastic factors. This paper evaluates the merits of a simulation-based probabilistic design method specifically developed to deal with this challenge. The outcome of the paper indicates that the incorporation of simulations and probabilistic design parameters into the design process enables more informed design decisions. For instance, it enables the assessment of the stochastic transport capacity of an arctic ship, as ...
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Abstract This paper proposes a framework for holistic goal- and risk-based design (GBD/RBD) of arctic maritime transport systems (AMTS). In order to best utilize the principles of GBD/RBD, the framework treats an AMTS as a hierarchy of subsystems. Each subsystem performs a specific function and can be designed separately. As a result, it possible to apply GBD/RBD where appropriate and feasible, and to use other methods where not. In addition, the applied system thinking makes it possible to exte...
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Arctic sea transportation has drawn a lot of attention in the recent years. The possibility of using a shorter route between Europe and Asia interests many actors in the shipping industry. Benefits from the shorter route may, at first, seem attractive. However, there might be factors affecting the feasibility of the route that are not obvious at first. The estimated transit speed along the Arctic route is not necessarily reached due to ice and other prevailing conditions. Simplified methods can ...
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This paper describes measurements of ice conditions in the fjord Van Mijenfjorden, Spitsbergen, in the Svalbard Archipelago, between 1998 and 2006. Ice thickness, ice temperatures and ice properties were measured, and simple simulations of oceanic flux were performed. The maximum annual peak ice thickness was measured in 2004: 1.3 m in the inner basin and 1.2 m in the outer basin. The minimum annual peak thickness was 0.72 m in the inner basin and no fast ice in the outer basin, in 2006. The est...
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Extensive work in recent years has been carried out on the calculation of global ice loads on a probabilistic basis. An analysis method is presented for local ice pressures, which yields values of pressure for specific values of exceedance probability. In developing this method, particular attention has been paid to problems of exposure (length, position and number of impacts), as well as the area of exposure (area within area versus nominal contact area). The solution has been formulated for a ...
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A theoretical distribution function for pressure-ridge, sail heights and keel depths is derived from fundamental assumptions about the randomness of the ridges. It is shown that the distribution function for ridge spacings (distance between ridges) can also be predicted from the assumption of spatially random occurrence. The suggested distribution functions are, in form, negative exponentials of the ridge height (or depth) squared and the ridge spacing, respectively. Extremely good fits were ach...
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Practical knowledge about the performance of a ship while navigating in ice is crucial for the selection of safe and efficient route for a ship. Existing route finding tools estimate ship performance in ice adopting numerous approaches, ranging from model tests and engineering models to experts-based guidelines. Therein ship performance is usually understood as attainable ship speed or the average speed in given ice conditions; rarely the probability of besetting in ice is taken into account. Th...
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Abstract In this paper, we present and evaluate three long-term wave models for application in simulation-based design of ships and marine structures. Designers and researchers often rely on historical weather data as a source for ocean area characteristics based on hindcast datasets or in-situ measurements. The limited access and size of historical datasets reduces repeatability of simulations and analyses, making it difficult to assess the sampling variability of performance and loads on marin...
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