Potential predictability of wet/dry spells transitions during extreme monsoon years: optimism for dynamical extended range prediction

The duration and extreme fluctuations of prolonged wet or dry spells associated with intraseasonal variability during extreme monsoon have devastating impacts on agrarian-based economy over Indian subcontinent. This study examines the potential predictability limit of intraseasonal transitions between rainy to non-rainy phases (i.e., active to break phases) or vice versa over central Indian region during extreme monsoon using very...