How accurate are energy intensity projections?

David I. Stern

doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2003-3

doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2003-3

How accurate are energy intensity projections?

David I. Stern

45

Climatic Change4.80

Volume: 143, Issue: 3-4, Pages: 537 - 545

Published: Jun 20, 2017

Abstract

Recent projections of energy intensity predict a more rapid decline in intensity than has occurred in the recent past. To assess how well such projections have performed in the past, I assess the accuracy of the business as usual energy intensity projections embedded in the annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) produced by the International Energy Agency since 1994. Changes in energy intensity depend on economic growth, and historical errors in...