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Sensitivity of UK butterflies to local climatic extremes: which life stages are most at risk?

Published on Jan 1, 2017in Journal of Animal Ecology 4.46
· DOI :10.1111/1365-2656.12594
Osgur McDermott Long1
Estimated H-index: 1
(UEA: University of East Anglia),
Rachel Warren29
Estimated H-index: 29
(UEA: University of East Anglia)
+ 3 AuthorsAldina M. A. Franco19
Estimated H-index: 19
(UEA: University of East Anglia)
Abstract
There is growing recognition as to the importance of extreme climatic events (ECEs) in determining changes in species populations. In fact, it is often the extent of climate variability that determines a population's ability to persist at a given site. This study examined the impact of ECEs on the resident UK butterfly species (n = 41) over a 37-year period. The study investigated the sensitivity of butterflies to four extremes (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme heat and extreme cold), identified at the site level, across each species' life stages. Variations in the vulnerability of butterflies at the site level were also compared based on three life-history traits (voltinism, habitat requirement and range). This is the first study to examine the effects of ECEs at the site level across all life stages of a butterfly, identifying sensitive life stages and unravelling the role life-history traits play in species sensitivity to ECEs. Butterfly population changes were found to be primarily driven by temperature extremes. Extreme heat was detrimental during overwintering periods and beneficial during adult periods and extreme cold had opposite impacts on both of these life stages. Previously undocumented detrimental effects were identified for extreme precipitation during the pupal life stage for univoltine species. Generalists were found to have significantly more negative associations with ECEs than specialists. With future projections of warmer, wetter winters and more severe weather events, UK butterflies could come under severe pressure given the findings of this study.
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References54
Newest
Published on Oct 1, 2015in Nature Climate Change 19.18
Tom H. Oliver26
Estimated H-index: 26
,
Harry H. Marshall14
Estimated H-index: 14
+ 3 AuthorsChris Huntingford54
Estimated H-index: 54
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of some climatic extremes. These may have drastic impacts on biodiversity, particularly if meteorological thresholds are crossed, leading to population collapses. Should this occur repeatedly, populations may be unable to recover, resulting in local extinctions. Comprehensive time series data on butterflies in Great Britain provide a rare opportunity to quantify population responses to both past severe drought and the interaction with habitat ...
64 Citations Source Cite
Published on Mar 1, 2015in Nature Climate Change 19.18
Michela Pacifici6
Estimated H-index: 6
(IUCN: International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources),
Wendy B. Foden11
Estimated H-index: 11
(University of the Witwatersrand)
+ 19 AuthorsH. Resit Akçakaya42
Estimated H-index: 42
(SBU: Stony Brook University)
The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe...
260 Citations Source Cite
Published on Sep 1, 2014in Ecography 4.52
Stuart E. Newson23
Estimated H-index: 23
(British Trust for Ornithology),
Tom H. Oliver26
Estimated H-index: 26
+ 5 AuthorsJames W. Pearce-Higgins28
Estimated H-index: 28
(British Trust for Ornithology)
Projected impacts of climate change on the populations and distributions of species pose a challenge for conservationists. In response, a number of adaptation strategies to enable species to persist in a changing climate have been proposed. Management to maximise the quality of habitat at existing sites may reduce the magnitude or frequency of climate-driven population declines. In addition large-scale management of landscapes could potentially improve the resilience of populations by facilitati...
12 Citations Source Cite
Published on Aug 15, 2014in The Journal of Experimental Biology 3.18
Klaus Fischer34
Estimated H-index: 34
(University of Greifswald),
Michael Klockmann5
Estimated H-index: 5
(University of Greifswald),
Elisabeth Reim2
Estimated H-index: 2
(University of Greifswald)
Climate change poses a significant challenge to all natural systems on Earth. Especially increases in extreme weather events such as heat waves have the potential to strongly affect biodiversity, though their effects are poorly understood due to a lack of empirical data. Therefore, we here explore the sensitivity of a tropical ectotherm, which are in general believed to have a low warming tolerance, to experimentally simulated climate change using ecologically realistic diurnal temperature cycle...
23 Citations Source Cite
Published on Mar 15, 2014in International Journal of Climatology 3.10
Mari Riess Jones3
Estimated H-index: 3
(Newcastle University),
Stephen Blenkinsop22
Estimated H-index: 22
(Newcastle University)
+ 1 AuthorsChris Kilsby31
Estimated H-index: 31
(Newcastle University)
Extreme rainfall events pose considerable threats to society and critical infrastructure yet, by definitions, these events are rare. Reliable estimates of the likelihood of such events are required to assist with impact quantification and risk management. Regional frequency analysis of pooled extreme rainfall to estimate the likely impacts of a changing climate is a well established method to assess the probability of these extremes. Previous analyses of country-wide changes to UK extreme daily ...
40 Citations Source Cite
Published on Feb 1, 2014in Nature Climate Change 19.18
Louise Mair5
Estimated H-index: 5
,
Jane K. Hill54
Estimated H-index: 54
+ 3 AuthorsChris D. Thomas84
Estimated H-index: 84
The rate at which species expand their geographic ranges in response to climate warming varies. Now research on British butterflies finds that stable or increasing abundance is a prerequisite for range expansion. This suggests that assessment of trends in abundance could help to improve predictions of the responses of species to climate change.
38 Citations Source Cite
Published on Jan 1, 2014in Population Ecology 1.64
Stephanie S. Bauerfeind13
Estimated H-index: 13
(University of Greifswald),
Klaus Fischer34
Estimated H-index: 34
(University of Greifswald)
Climate-change induced shifts in species’ temporal and geographic niches have been well documented, while plastic and genetic responses to climatic change have received much less attention. Plastic responses to changes in temperature are generally well understood, though most experimental studies to date have used constant temperature regimes, the reliability of which is under debate. We here investigate plastic responses in the widespread butterfly Pieris napi to simulated climate change, using...
29 Citations Source Cite
Published on Jul 1, 2013in Nature Climate Change 19.18
Rachel Warren29
Estimated H-index: 29
,
Jeremy VanDerWal33
Estimated H-index: 33
+ 8 AuthorsStephen E. Williams122
Estimated H-index: 122
Climate change is expected to have significant influences on terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species. However, little is known about how mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions could reduce biodiversity impacts, particularly amongst common and widespread species. Our global analysis of future climatic range change of common and widespread species shows that without mitigation, 57±6% of plants...
136 Citations Source Cite
Published on Jun 12, 2013in PLOS ONE 2.77
Wendy B. Foden11
Estimated H-index: 11
(University of the Witwatersrand),
Stuart H. M. Butchart50
Estimated H-index: 50
(BirdLife International)
+ 16 AuthorsLong Cao21
Estimated H-index: 21
(ZJU: Zhejiang University)
Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ ...
330 Citations Source Cite
Published on May 1, 2013in Ecography 4.52
Tom H. Oliver26
Estimated H-index: 26
,
Tom Brereton27
Estimated H-index: 27
,
David B. Roy59
Estimated H-index: 59
Most studies on the biological impact of climate change have focussed on incremental climate warming, rather than extreme events. Yet responses of species’ populations to climatic extremes may be one of the primary drivers of ecological change. We assess the resilience of individual populations in terms of their sensitivity to- and ability to recover from- environmental perturbation. We demonstrate the method using a model species, the ringlet butterfly Aphantopus hyperantus, and analyse the eff...
36 Citations Source Cite
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Published on Apr 1, 2019in Journal of Insect Conservation 1.56
Emily B. Dennis6
Estimated H-index: 6
(UKC: University of Kent),
Tom Brereton27
Estimated H-index: 27
(Butterfly Conservation)
+ 4 AuthorsSimon Foster4
Estimated H-index: 4
(Scottish Natural Heritage)
Moths form an important part of Scotland’s biodiversity and an up-to-date assessment of their status is needed given their value as a diverse and species-rich taxon, with various ecosystem roles, and the known decline of moths within Britain. We use long-term citizen-science data to produce species-level trends and multi-species indicators for moths in Scotland, to assess population (abundance) and distribution (occupancy) changes. Abundance trends for moths in Scotland are produced using Rotham...
1 Citations Source Cite
Published on Feb 1, 2019in Oecologia 3.13
Urtzi Enriquez-Urzelai1
Estimated H-index: 1
(CSIC: Spanish National Research Council),
Martina Sacco1
Estimated H-index: 1
(CSIC: Spanish National Research Council)
+ 3 AuthorsAlfredo G. Nicieza25
Estimated H-index: 25
(CSIC: Spanish National Research Council)
Complex life-histories may promote the evolution of different strategies to allow optimal matching to the environmental conditions that organisms can encounter in contrasting environments. For ectothermic animals, we need to disentangle the role of stage-specific thermal tolerances and developmental acclimation to predict the effects of climate change on spatial distributions. However, the interplay between these mechanisms has been poorly explored. Here we study whether developmental larval acc...
1 Citations Source Cite
Published on Dec 3, 2018in ZooKeys 1.08
Mark Hassall25
Estimated H-index: 25
,
Anna Moss2
Estimated H-index: 2
+ 1 AuthorsJames J. Gilroy19
Estimated H-index: 19
The importance of considering species-specific biotic interactions when predicting feedbacks between the effects of climate change and ecosystem functions is becoming widely recognised. The responses of soil animals to predicted changes in global climate could potentially have far-reaching consequences for fluxes of soil carbon, including climatic feedbacks resulting from increased emissions of carbon dioxide from soils. The responses of soil animals to different microclimates can be summarised ...
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Published on Nov 1, 2018in Oikos 3.71
Romain Sarremejane3
Estimated H-index: 3
(NTU: Nottingham Trent University),
Heikki Mykrä23
Estimated H-index: 23
(SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute)
+ 6 AuthorsTimo Muotka25
Estimated H-index: 25
(University of Oulu)
2 Citations Source Cite
Published on Oct 1, 2018in Ecological Applications 4.39
Talisin T. Hammond5
Estimated H-index: 5
(University of California, Berkeley),
Rupert Palme51
Estimated H-index: 51
,
Eileen A. Lacey23
Estimated H-index: 23
(University of California, Berkeley)
Source Cite
Published on Sep 1, 2018in Ecography 4.52
Nathan R. Senner12
Estimated H-index: 12
(UM: University of Montana),
Maria Stager6
Estimated H-index: 6
(UM: University of Montana),
Zachary A. Cheviron21
Estimated H-index: 21
(UM: University of Montana)
Global climate change has already caused local declines and extinctions. These losses are generally thought to occur because climate change is progressing too rapidly for populations to keep pace. Based on this hypothesis, numerous predictive frameworks have been developed to project future range shifts and changes in population dynamics resulting from global climate change. However, recent empirical work has demonstrated that seasonally asynchronous climate change regimes – when a region is war...
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Published on Jul 1, 2018in Forests 1.96
Silvia Greco5
Estimated H-index: 5
,
Marco Infusino3
Estimated H-index: 3
+ 5 AuthorsStefano Scalercio9
Estimated H-index: 9
The magnitude and frequency of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) are increasing, causing changes in species distribution. We assessed the short-term effects of a late spring frost on beech forests, using satellite images to identify damaged forests and changes in v-egetation phenology, as well as to support the analyses on associated moth communities. The EWE caused crown dieback above 1400 m of altitude, recovered only after several weeks. Nine stands for moth sampling, settled in impacted and non-...
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Published on Jun 1, 2018in Nature 41.58
Sonia I. Seneviratne59
Estimated H-index: 59
(ETH Zurich),
Joeri Rogelj33
Estimated H-index: 33
+ 11 AuthorsOve Hoegh-Guldberg82
Estimated H-index: 82
(UQ: University of Queensland)
The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerab...
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Published on May 18, 2018in Science 41.06
Rachel Warren29
Estimated H-index: 29
(UEA: University of East Anglia),
Jeff Price8
Estimated H-index: 8
(UEA: University of East Anglia)
+ 2 AuthorsJeremy VanDerWal33
Estimated H-index: 33
(JCU: James Cook University)
In the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the United Nations is pursuing efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C, whereas earlier aspirations focused on a 2°C limit. With current pledges, corresponding to ~3.2°C warming, climatically determined geographic range losses of >50% are projected in ~49% of insects, 44% of plants, and 26% of vertebrates. At 2°C, this falls to 18% of insects, 16% of plants, and 8% of vertebrates and at 1.5°C, to 6% of insects, 8% of plants, and 4% of vertebrates. When ...
13 Citations Source Cite
Published on May 1, 2018in Journal of Animal Ecology 4.46
F. Guillaume Blanchet1
Estimated H-index: 1
(Université de Sherbrooke),
Tomas Roslin32
Estimated H-index: 32
(UH: University of Helsinki)
+ 4 AuthorsAyco J. M. Tack16
Estimated H-index: 16
(Stockholm University)
1. Within natural communities, different taxa display different dynamics in time. Why this is the case we do not fully know. This thwarts our ability to predict changes in community structure, which is important for both the conservation of rare species in natural communities and for the prediction of pest outbreaks in agriculture 2. Species sharing phylogeny, natural enemies and/or life history traits have been hypothesized to share similar temporal dynamics. We operationalized these concepts i...
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