Bayesian Inference Dilemma in Medical Decision-Making: A Need for User-Friendly Probabilistic Reasoning Tools

The struggle with uncertainty among healthcare professionals about how to apply test results for risk stratification and diagnosis of patients was recently highlighted as a serious risk factor for diagnostic and medical decision-making errors in the 2015 Institute of Medicine (IOM) report Improving Diagnosis in Health Care (1). The Bayes theorem is well recognized by trainees and caregivers as a statistical key for updating the probability of a...