(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences), Dengsheng Wu10

Estimated H-index: 10

(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)

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Abstract

Extant research has focused upon assessing individual risks with the aid of risk matrices. Although risk aggregation is an important issue in risk management, aggregation of risks measured by risk matrices remains unresolved despite the wide usage of risk matrices. This paper proposes a framework to resolve the problem. We start from modifying the two notions of non-aggregatability of risk matrices, namely, qualitative description of inputs and non-comparability of different types of consequences. Then, we explicate the strong connection between risk matrices and fuzzy sets and propose that the transformation from risk matrices to fuzzy sets clear some confusions encountered in the aggregation process. A framework which covers membership analysis, composing different risk and defuzzification of the aggregated membership function, is proposed to aggregate different risks. In the framework, we pay maximum attention to accurate estimation of memberships of different risks. Besides, technical problems of comp...

(ITU: Istanbul Technical University)+ 1 AuthorsNagihan Turkoglu1

Estimated H-index: 1

(ITU: Istanbul Technical University)

Risk analysis methods gain more and more acceptance as decision support tools to analyze and reduce risks in engineering applications. Integration of these techniques leads to more reliable and realistic solutions. This paper proposes an integrated methodology to identify and evaluate driving factors like geographical locations at the time of the incident and failure modes causing fatality for cargo ships. The authors aim to develop a risk method for cleaner and safer maritime transport at coast...

Risk matrices are widely used in risk management. They are a regular feature in various risk management standards and guidelines and are also used as formal corporate risk acceptance criteria. It is only recently, however, that scientific publications have appeared that discuss the weaknesses of the risk matrix. The objective of this paper is to explore these weaknesses, and provide recommendations for the use and design of risk matrices. The paper reviews the few relevant publications and adds ...

The development of parallel ISO "risk" standards series - ISO 31,000 and 27,000 and now Security Risk (28,001) versions, underlines the divergences in requirements from the different currently practising risk management communities. This is highlighted in the content of the series of ongoing web based discussions (Linked in) (Institute of Risk management, 2011). The contributions have been thoughtful, authoritative and illuminating and it is reassuring that even after (or perhaps because of) rec...

In recent years, there have been many cost-benefit studies on aviation safety, which deal mainly with economic issues, omitting some strictly technical aspects. This study compares aircraft accidents in relation to the characteristics of the aircraft, environmental conditions, route, and traffic type. The study was conducted using a database of over 1500 aircraft accidents worldwide, occurring between 1985 and 2010. The data were processed and then aggregated into groups, using cluster analysis ...

(LJMU: Liverpool John Moores University)+ 3 AuthorsJin Wang34

Estimated H-index: 34

(LJMU: Liverpool John Moores University)

Seaport operations are characterised by high levels of uncertainty, as a result their risk evaluation is a very challenging task. Much of the available data associated with the system’s operations is uncertain and ambiguous, requiring a flexible yet robust approach of handling both quantitative and qualitative data as well as a means of updating existing information as new data becomes available. Conventional risk modelling approaches are considered to be inadequate due to the lack of flexibilit...

Risk aggregation with dependence uncertainty refers to the sum of individual risks with known marginal distributions and unspecified dependence structure. We introduce the admissible risk class to study risk aggregation with dependence uncertainty. The admissible risk class has some nice properties such as robustness, convexity, permutation invariance and affine invariance. We then derive a new convex ordering lower bound over this class and give a sufficient condition for this lower bound to be...

(Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics), Deng-Feng Li18

Estimated H-index: 18

(FZU: Fuzhou University)

Multiattribute decision making (MADM) with multiple formats of information, which is called heterogeneous MADM for short, is very complex and interesting in applications. The purpose of this paper is to extend the Linear Programming Technique for Multidimensional Analysis of Preference (LINMAP) for solving heterogeneous MADM problems which involve intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) sets (IFSs), trapezoidal fuzzy numbers (TrFNs), intervals and real numbers. In this method, DM's preference is given through...

The research presented here aims to plot density diagrams per road crash risk type to identify all possible scenarios where driving is less than safe. The starting point was the prediction of injury crash rate on horizontal homogeneous segments of two-lane rural roads for three main injurious crash types (head-on/side collisions, rear-end crashes, and single-vehicle run-off-road crashes) as observed on the network. A careful analysis of the database shows that a wide variety of factors appear to...

Fuzzy Set Theory - And Its Applications, Third Edition is a textbook for courses in fuzzy set theory. It can also be used as an introduction to the subject. The character of a textbook is balanced with the dynamic nature of the research in the field by including many useful references to develop a deeper understanding among interested readers. The book updates the research agenda (which has witnessed profound and startling advances since its inception some 30 years ago) with chapters on possibil...

Group risk is usually represented by FN-curves showing the frequency of different accident sizes for a given activity. Many governments regulate group risk through FN-criterion lines which define the tolerable location of an FN-curve. However, to compare different risk reduction alternatives one must be able to rank FN-curves. The two main problems in doing this are that the FN-curve contains multiple frequencies, and that there are usually large epistemic uncertainties about the curve. Since th...

Risk measures play significant roles in determining the magnitude of risks. The traditional risk measures consider only the consequence (C)and the probability (P)and ignore the support of the knowledge behind to estimate Cand P. Several researchers have suggested adding knowledge as a third dimension in the risk measures. However, the issues of how to embed the dimension of knowledge in the risk measures to output an explicit expression of the risk measure and how to measure the stre...

AbstractRisk matrices have been proven as useful risk management tools, especially in the cases where data are not sufficient. Current usage of risk matrices in both literature and practice is related to single risk assessment. However, sometimes the decision makers care more about the overall risk consisting of several of single risks, which is in the scope of the aggregation of single risks measured by risk matrices. Unfortunately, two notions, namely, incomparability of different qualitative ...

Studies on software risk response theories and methods play an important role in improving the success rate of software project. With the requirement of software risk management, the existing single-objective risk response strategies section model is difficult to manage software risks effectively. This paper regards software risk response cost and software risk exposure as optimization objectives and proposes a multiobjective risk response strategies optimization model for software project. Furt...

Fluctuations in the crude oil price allied to risk have increased significantly over the last decade frequently varying at different risk levels. Although existing models partially predict such variations, so far, they have been unable to predict oil prices accurately in this highly volatile market. The development of an effective, predictive model has therefore become a prime objective of research in this field. Our approach, albeit based in part on previous research, develops an original metho...

(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)+ 3 AuthorsQianzhi Dai1

Estimated H-index: 1

(Hefei University of Technology)

Abstract Project risk response planning is an important component of project risk management to help ensure project success. However, thus far, the relevant research has ignored the correlations between risk factors during different project development subprocesses. This study proposes a novel risk response method by opening the black box of the project process and considering the risk correlations among different subprocesses to help practitioners create a practical risk response plan. In our m...

(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences), Dengsheng Wu10

Estimated H-index: 10

(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Risk matrices have been widely used as a risk evaluation tool in many fields due to their simplicity and intuitive nature. Designing a rating scheme, i.e., determining the number of ratings used in a risk matrix and assigning different ratings to different cells, is an essential part of risk matrix construction. However, most of the related literature has focused on applying a risk matrix to various fields, instead of researching how to design risk matrices. Based on the analysis of several curr...

(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences), Dengsheng Wu10

Estimated H-index: 10

(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)+ 2 AuthorsJianming Chen6

Estimated H-index: 6

(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract The design of risk matrices is a topic that has not reached a consensus, although risk matrices are widely used in practice. Several methods have been proposed to help design risk matrices. However, all the methods seem to have their own advantages, and it is difficult for the decision makers to choose one. In this paper, we compare two different risk matrix design methods from the perspective of applicability. Specifically, we give three detailed scenarios where different settings of t...