The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks

We examine the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance shocks at the zero lower bound. Empirically, we identify forward guidance shocks using a two-step procedure, which embeds high-frequency futures contracts in a structural vector autoregression. An exogenous extension of the zero lower bound duration increases economic activity and prices. We show that a standard model of nominal price rigidity largely replicates these empirical results. To...