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Can Scientific Impact Be Predicted

Published on Mar 1, 2016in IEEE Transactions on Big Data
· DOI :10.1109/TBDATA.2016.2521657
Yuxiao Dong13
Estimated H-index: 13
(ND: University of Notre Dame),
Reid A. Johnson7
Estimated H-index: 7
(ND: University of Notre Dame),
Nitesh V. Chawla45
Estimated H-index: 45
(ND: University of Notre Dame)
Abstract
A widely used measure of scientific impact is citations. However, due to their heavy-tailed distribution, citations are fundamentally difficult to predict. Instead, to characterize scientific impact, we address two analogous questions asked by many scientific researchers: “How will my h -index evolve over time, and which of my previously or newly published papers will contribute to it?” To answer these questions, we perform two related tasks. First, we develop a model to predict authors’ future h -indices based on their current scientific impact. Second, we examine the factors that drive papers—either previously or newly published—to increase their authors’ predicted future h -indices. By leveraging relevant factors, we can predict an author's h -index in five years with an R^2 value of 0.92 and whether a previously (newly) published paper will contribute to this future h -index with an F_1 score of 0.99 (0.77). We find that topical authority and publication venue are crucial to these effective predictions, while topic popularity is surprisingly inconsequential. Further, we develop an online tool that allows users to generate informed h -index predictions. Our work demonstrates the predictability of scientific impact, and can help researchers to effectively leverage their scholarly position of “standing on the shoulders of giants.”
  • References (43)
  • Citations (30)
References43
Newest
#1Yuxiao Dong (ND: University of Notre Dame)H-Index: 13
#2Reid A. Johnson (ND: University of Notre Dame)H-Index: 7
Last.Nitesh V. Chawla (ND: University of Notre Dame)H-Index: 45
view all 3 authors...
Aug 25, 2015 in ASONAM (Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining)
#1Yuxiao Dong (ND: University of Notre Dame)H-Index: 13
#2Reid A. Johnson (ND: University of Notre Dame)H-Index: 7
Last.Nitesh V. Chawla (ND: University of Notre Dame)H-Index: 45
view all 4 authors...
#1Ying DingH-Index: 39
#2RonaldRousseauH-Index: 41
Last.Dietmar WolframH-Index: 18
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#1Ying Ding (IU: Indiana University)H-Index: 39
#2Guo Zhang (IU: Indiana University)H-Index: 6
Last.ChengXiang Zhai (UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign)H-Index: 69
view all 6 authors...
Aug 24, 2014 in KDD (Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining)
#1Xiang Ren (UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign)H-Index: 23
#2Jialu Liu (UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign)H-Index: 13
Last.Jiawei Han (UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign)H-Index: 140
view all 7 authors...
Jul 27, 2014 in AAAI (National Conference on Artificial Intelligence)
#1Huawei Shen (CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)H-Index: 24
#2Dashun Wang (IBM)H-Index: 16
Last.Albert-La szlo Baraba si (NU: Northeastern University)H-Index: 120
view all 4 authors...
Apr 7, 2014 in WWW (The Web Conference)
#1Justin Cheng (Stanford University)H-Index: 17
#2Lada A. Adamic (Facebook)H-Index: 46
Last.Jure Leskovec (Stanford University)H-Index: 86
view all 5 authors...
#1Brian Uzzi (NU: Northwestern University)H-Index: 34
#2Satyam Mukherjee (NU: Northwestern University)H-Index: 10
Last.Benjamin F. Jones (NU: Northwestern University)H-Index: 21
view all 4 authors...
#1Dashun Wang (NU: Northeastern University)H-Index: 16
#2Chaoming Song (NU: Northeastern University)H-Index: 26
Last.Albert-La szlo Baraba siH-Index: 120
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Cited By30
Newest
#1Jie Hou (DUT: Dalian University of Technology)H-Index: 3
#2Hanxiao Pan (DUT: Dalian University of Technology)
Last.Feng Xia (DUT: Dalian University of Technology)H-Index: 35
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#1MingJian Tang (UNSW: University of New South Wales)H-Index: 2
#2Mamoun Alazab (ANU: Australian National University)H-Index: 12
Last.Yuxiu Luo (IBM)H-Index: 2
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#1Wei Wang (DUT: Dalian University of Technology)H-Index: 35
#2Bo Xu (DUT: Dalian University of Technology)H-Index: 9
Last.Feng Xia (DUT: Dalian University of Technology)H-Index: 35
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#1Zhou Chunlei (Zhengzhou University)H-Index: 1
#2Kong Xiangyi (Zhengzhou University)H-Index: 1
Last.Lin Zhipeng (Zhengzhou University)H-Index: 1
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#1Andreas Schmidt (University of Kassel)H-Index: 4
#2Gerd Stumrne (University of Kassel)H-Index: 48
#1Jun Zhang (DUT: Dalian University of Technology)H-Index: 7
#2Yan Hu (DUT: Dalian University of Technology)H-Index: 4
Last.Feng Xia (DUT: Dalian University of Technology)H-Index: 35
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View next paperAN INDEX TO QUANTIFY AN INDIVIDUAL'S SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH OUTPUT