Quantitative modelling in cognitive ergonomics: predicting signals passed at danger

This paper shows how to combine field observations, experimental data and mathematical modelling to produce quantitative explanations and predictions of complex events in human-machine interaction. As an example, we consider a major railway accident. In 1999, a commuter train passed a red signal near Ladbroke Grove, UK, into the path of an express. We use the Public Inquiry Report, 'black box' data, and accident and engineering reports to...