Methods for building Conditional Probability Tables of Bayesian Belief Networks from limited judgment: An evaluation for Human Reliability Application

The present paper evaluates five methods for building Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs) of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) from partial expert information: functional interpolation, the Elicitation BBN, the Cain calculator, Fenton et al. and Roed et al. methods. The evaluation considers application to a specific field of risk analysis, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). The five methods are particularly suited for HRA models calculating the...