Seasonal drought predictability in Portugal using statistical–dynamical techniques

Atmospheric forecasting and predictability are important to promote adaption and mitigation measures in order to minimize drought impacts. This study estimates hybrid (statistical–dynamical) long-range forecasts of the regional drought index SPI (3-months) over homogeneous regions from mainland Portugal, based on forecasts from the UKMO operational forecasting system, with lead-times up to 6 months. ERA-Interim reanalysis data is used for the...