Globalization's Concentrated Costs (and Benefits): Import Competition, Globally Engaged Firms, and U.S. Presidential Voting 1

We study how integration in the global economy influences U.S. presidential elections. National-level (“macro”) voting studies of presidential elections have shown large effects of economic variables on incumbent party vote shares. We extend this work to consider the effects of trade, showing for the first time that increasing imports negatively affect incumbent vote share and increasing exports are associated in increasing vote shares for...