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Probabilistic Forecast for Twenty-First-Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (Without Policy) and Climate Parameters

Published on Oct 1, 2009in Journal of Climate4.80
· DOI :10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1
Andrei P. Sokolov36
Estimated H-index: 36
,
Peter H. Stone99
Estimated H-index: 99
+ 12 AuthorsHenry D. Jacoby37
Estimated H-index: 37
Abstract
Abstract The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model’s first projections were published in 2003, substantial improvements have been made to the model, and improved estimates of the probability distributions of uncertain input parameters have become available. The new projections are considerably warmer than the 2003 projections; for example, the median surface warming in 2091–2100 is 5.1°C compared to 2.4°C in the earlier study. Many changes contribute to the stronger warming; among the more important ones are taking into account the cooling in the second half of the twentieth century due to volcanic eruptions for input parameter estimation and a more sophisticated method for projecting gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which eliminated many low-emission scenarios. However, if recently published data, suggesting stronger twentieth-century ocean warming, are used to determine...
  • References (63)
  • Citations (218)
References63
Newest
#1Chris E. Forest (MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology)H-Index: 27
#2Peter Stone (MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology)H-Index: 99
Last.Andrei P. Sokolov (MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology)H-Index: 36
view all 3 authors...
#1Reto Knutti (NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 61
#2Myles R. AllenH-Index: 64
Last.Tom M. L. Wigley (NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 83
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#1Catia M. Domingues (O&A: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 19
#2John A. Church (O&A: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 56
Last.Jeff R. Dunn (O&A: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 4
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#1Malte Meinshausen (PIK: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)H-Index: 44
#2Sarah C. B. Raper (MMU: Manchester Metropolitan University)H-Index: 43
Last.Tom M. L. Wigley (NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 83
view all 3 authors...
#1Sergey Paltsev (MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology)H-Index: 42
#2John M. Reilly (MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology)H-Index: 59
Last.Jennifer F. Holak (MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology)H-Index: 3
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Cited By218
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#1Stephanie Dutkiewicz (MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology)H-Index: 43
#2Anna E. Hickman (NOCS: National Oceanography Centre, Southampton)H-Index: 15
Last.Erwan Monier (MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology)H-Index: 16
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#1Joana S. Carvalho (University of Stirling)H-Index: 4
#2Bruce P. Graham (University of Stirling)H-Index: 22
Last.Hjalmar S. Kühl (MPG: Max Planck Society)H-Index: 24
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#1Erwan Monier (MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology)H-Index: 16
#2Sergey Paltsev (MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology)H-Index: 42
Last.Martin Haigh (Royal Dutch Shell)H-Index: 5
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#1Yanan Lu (Dalian Ocean University)H-Index: 1
#2Li Wang (Dalian Ocean University)H-Index: 1
Last.Liqiang Zhao (UTokyo: University of Tokyo)H-Index: 6
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#1Andrei P. Sokolov (MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology)H-Index: 36
#2David W. Kicklighter (MBL: Marine Biological Laboratory)H-Index: 61
Last.Sebastian D. Eastham (MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology)H-Index: 9
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#1Yann Quilcaille (Agro ParisTech)H-Index: 2
#2Thomas Gasser (IIASA: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)H-Index: 17
Last.Steve Mohr (UTS: University of Technology, Sydney)H-Index: 13
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