State-Space Modeling Indicates Rapid Invasion of an Alien Shrub in Coastal Dunes

Invasion by alien plants has negative effects on coastal dunes. Monitoring local spread of invasive species depends on long-term data with sufficient spatial resolution. Bayesian state-space models are a new method for monitoring invasive plants based on unbalanced permanent-plot data. The method allows separation of process and sampling variance, thus enabling ecological predictions with a known degree of uncertainty. The method is applied for...