The “Hazards” of Extrapolating Survival Curves

It is widely recommended that health technology appraisals adopt a lifetime horizon to assess the relative costs and benefits of an intervention. However, most trials or clinical studies have relatively short follow-up periods, with the event of interest not occurring before the end of the study for many subjects. In such cases, survival analysis using parametric models can be used to extrapolate into the future.To assess the accuracy of...