Assessing the accuracy of forecasting: Applying standard diagnostic assessment tools to a health technology early warning system

Objectives: Early warning systems are an integral part of many health technology assessment programs. Despite this finding, to date, there have been no quantitative evaluations of the accuracy of predictions made by these systems. We report a study evaluating the accuracy of predictions made by the main United Kingdom early warning system. Methods: As prediction of impact is analogous to diagnosis, a method normally applied to determine the...