Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans

Published on Jan 29, 2014in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences2.88
· DOI :10.5194/nhess-15-59-2015
A. Miller1
Estimated H-index: 1
(TU Delft: Delft University of Technology),
Sebastiaan N. Jonkman21
Estimated H-index: 21
(TU Delft: Delft University of Technology),
Mathijs van Ledden9
Estimated H-index: 9
(Royal HaskoningDHV)
Since the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a flood risk analysis the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that – depending on the flood scenario – the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large-scale engineering systems (e.g., other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk to life of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Indicative effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation and discussion.
  • References (35)
  • Citations (15)
30 CitationsSource
#1Stephane HallegatteH-Index: 44
#2Colin GreenH-Index: 19
Last.Jan Corfee-MorlotH-Index: 21
view all 4 authors...
666 CitationsSource
#1B. KolenH-Index: 8
#2Matthijs Kok (TU Delft: Delft University of Technology)H-Index: 12
Last.B. MaaskantH-Index: 8
view all 4 authors...
26 CitationsSource
#1Ruben JongejanH-Index: 2
#2B. MaaskantH-Index: 8
Last.Harry StefessH-Index: 1
view all 6 authors...
15 Citations
#1Sebastiaan N. Jonkman (TU Delft: Delft University of Technology)H-Index: 21
#2Lynn A. Hiel (University of California, Berkeley)H-Index: 1
Last.Lyndsie Harris (University of California, Berkeley)H-Index: 1
view all 8 authors...
6 CitationsSource
#1R JongejanH-Index: 1
#2B MaaskantH-Index: 1
10 CitationsSource
#1Sebastiaan N. Jonkman (TU Delft: Delft University of Technology)H-Index: 21
#2Ruben JongejanH-Index: 2
Last.B. MaaskantH-Index: 8
view all 3 authors...
36 CitationsSource
#1J.K. VrijlingH-Index: 21
#2T. SchweckendiekH-Index: 7
Last.W. KanningH-Index: 7
view all 3 authors...
13 Citations
#1Ezra Boyd (LSU: Louisiana State University)H-Index: 2
6 CitationsSource
#1F. HossH-Index: 1
5 Citations
Cited By15
#1Mehdi Karbasi (IAU: Islamic Azad University)H-Index: 1
#2Alireza Shokoohi (IKIU: Imam Khomeini International University)H-Index: 7
Last.Bahram Saghafian (IAU: Islamic Azad University)H-Index: 18
view all 3 authors...
1 CitationsSource
#1Gregory G. Garner (Princeton University)H-Index: 5
#2Klaus Keller (CMU: Carnegie Mellon University)H-Index: 33
4 CitationsSource
#1Martin Vezér (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 3
#2Alexander M. R. Bakker (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 9
Last.Nancy Tuana (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 19
view all 4 authors...
3 CitationsSource
#1Firas Saleh (Stevens Institute of Technology)H-Index: 8
#2V. Ramaswamy (Stevens Institute of Technology)H-Index: 3
Last.Julie Pullen (Stevens Institute of Technology)H-Index: 22
view all 6 authors...
7 CitationsSource
#1Ana Rilo (University of Lisbon)H-Index: 6
#2Alexandre Oliveira Tavares (Centre for Social Studies)H-Index: 9
Last.José Luís Zêzere (University of Lisbon)H-Index: 20
view all 5 authors...
2 CitationsSource
#1Douglas L. Bessette (OSU: Ohio State University)H-Index: 6
#2Lauren A. Mayer (AN: RAND Corporation)H-Index: 6
Last.Nancy Tuana (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 19
view all 7 authors...
11 CitationsSource
#1Freddy VinetH-Index: 1
1 CitationsSource
#1Paula FreireH-Index: 10
#2Alexandre Oliveira Tavares (UC: University of Coimbra)H-Index: 9
Last.Pedro PintoH-Index: 8
view all 11 authors...
9 CitationsSource
#1Philip Bubeck (University of Potsdam)H-Index: 19
#2Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts (VU: VU University Amsterdam)H-Index: 52
Last.Heidi KreibichH-Index: 39
view all 4 authors...
10 CitationsSource
#1Gonéri Le CozannetH-Index: 14
#2Carlos OliverosH-Index: 7
Last.Jérémy RohmerH-Index: 16
view all 7 authors...
7 CitationsSource