An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys using Real-Time Data

This paper carries out the task of evaluating inflation forecasts from the Livingston Survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, using the real-time data set for macroeconomists as a source of real-time data. The author examines the magnitude and patterns of revisions to the inflation rate based on the output price index and describe what data to use as actuals in evaluating forecasts. The author then runs tests on the forecasts from the...