Surgeon predictions on growth of minimal invasive therapy: the difficulty of estimating technologic diffusion

To compare five-year predictions made in 1992 by academic surgeon leaders in UK, US and Canada, with actual experiences in 1997, of increased rates of minimal invasive therapy (MIT) for surgical operations.We compared 1992 predictions of percent of operations done by minimal invasive therapy and length of stay in the US with actual 1997 percents found by literature searches.We found sufficient data on 12 operations done by MIT in 1997 of the...