Uncertainty Evaluation of a Groundwater Conceptual Model by Using a Multimodel Averaging Method

Published on Jul 4, 2015in Human and Ecological Risk Assessment2.01
· DOI :10.1080/10807039.2014.957945
Xiankui Zeng7
Estimated H-index: 7
(NU: Nanjing University),
Dong Wang12
Estimated H-index: 12
(NU: Nanjing University)
+ 3 AuthorsXinqing Zou9
Estimated H-index: 9
(NU: Nanjing University)
ABSTRACTA groundwater field is a complex and open system. Groundwater simulation and prediction often deviated from true values, which is attributed to the uncertainty of groundwater modeling. The conceptual model (model struture) is one of the main sources of groundwater modeling uncertianty. In this study, the mean Euclidean distance (MED) between model simulations and observations is proposed to assess the integrated likelihood value of a conceptual model in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). Moreover, this proposed BMA method is compared with the traditional generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) BMA method by a synthetical groundwater model, and the characteristics of these two BMA methods are summarized.
  • References (28)
  • Citations (6)
#1Jennifer A. HoetingH-Index: 21
#2David MadiganH-Index: 38
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#1Xiankui Zeng (NU: Nanjing University)H-Index: 7
#2Dong Wang (NU: Nanjing University)H-Index: 12
Last.Xi Chen (Hohai University)H-Index: 28
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#1Jichun Wu (NU: Nanjing University)H-Index: 27
#2Le Lu (NU: Nanjing University)H-Index: 1
Last.Tian Tang (NU: Nanjing University)H-Index: 1
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#1Rodriguo Rojas (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)H-Index: 1
#2Samalie Kahunde (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)H-Index: 1
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Cited By6
#1Trine Enemark (Flinders University)
#2Luk Peeters (CSIRO: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)H-Index: 11
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#1Xiankui Zeng (NU: Nanjing University)H-Index: 7
#2Jichun Wu (NU: Nanjing University)H-Index: 27
Last.Xiaobin Zhu (NU: Nanjing University)H-Index: 5
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#1Chaoran Wang (THU: Tsinghua University)H-Index: 3
#2Dan Xie (THU: Tsinghua University)H-Index: 1
Last.Yi Liu (THU: Tsinghua University)H-Index: 13
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#1Shanghai Du (BNU: Beijing Normal University)H-Index: 3
#2Xiaosi Su (JLU: Jilin University)H-Index: 8
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View next paperConceptual model uncertainty in groundwater modeling: Combining generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation and Bayesian model averaging: EVALUATING CONCEPTUAL MODEL