Match!

International climate policy architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios

Published on Dec 1, 2009in Energy Economics
· DOI :10.1016/j.eneco.2009.10.013
Leon E. Clarke39
Estimated H-index: 39
(Joint Global Change Research Institute),
Jae Edmonds50
Estimated H-index: 50
(Joint Global Change Research Institute)
+ 3 AuthorsMassimo Tavoni36
Estimated H-index: 36
(Princeton University)
Abstract
article i nfo Available online 24 October 2009 This paper presents an overview of the study design for, and the results of, the EMF 22 International Scenarios. The EMF 22 International Scenarios engaged ten of the world's leading integrated assessment (IA) models to focus on the combined implications of three factors integral to international climate negotiations: (1) the long-term climate-related target, expressed in this study in terms of the CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) concentration associated with the GHGs regulated under the Kyoto Protocol, (2) whether or not this target can be temporarily exceeded prior to 2100 ("overshoot") allowing for greater near-term flexibility, and (3) the nature of international participation in emissions mitigation. The EMF 22 International Scenarios are based on combinations of these dimensions, embodied in ten specific climate-action cases that all modeling groups in the study attempted to represent.
  • References (36)
  • Citations (395)
📖 Papers frequently viewed together
235 Citations
156 Citations
200941.06Science
9 Authors (Marshall A. Wise, ..., Jae Edmonds)
570 Citations
78% of Scinapse members use related papers. After signing in, all features are FREE.
References36
Newest
#1Katherine V. Calvin (Joint Global Change Research Institute)H-Index: 40
#2Pralit Patel (Joint Global Change Research Institute)H-Index: 19
Last. Marshall A. Wise (Joint Global Change Research Institute)H-Index: 34
view all 9 authors...
The EMF22 Transition Scenario subgroup explores the implications of delayed accession on limiting climate change to various radiative forcing levels. This paper focuses on the cost of limiting radiative forcing and the role that industrial leakage plays in scenarios of delayed accession. We find that delayed participation shifts the cost burden toward regions that take early action and away from regions that undertake mitigation later. However, the inefficiencies introduced by delay are so great...
39 CitationsSource
#1Valentina Bosetti (Bocconi University)H-Index: 34
#2Carlo Carraro (Ca' Foscari University of Venice)H-Index: 59
Last. Massimo Tavoni (Princeton University)H-Index: 36
view all 3 authors...
This paper builds on the assumption that OECD countries are (or will soon be) taking actions to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These actions, however, will not be sufficient to control global warming, unless developing countries also get involved in the cooperative effort to reduce GHG emissions. This paper investigates the best short-term strategies that emerging economies can adopt in reacting to OECD countries’ mitigation effort, given the common long-term goal to prevent excessive wa...
67 CitationsSource
#1Geoffrey J. Blanford (EPRI: Electric Power Research Institute)H-Index: 16
#2Richard G. Richels (EPRI: Electric Power Research Institute)H-Index: 35
Last. Thomas F. Rutherford (EPFL: École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne)H-Index: 42
view all 3 authors...
The analysis presented here follows the design specified by the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) Transition Scenarios study on achieving climate stabilization goals with delayed participation by developing countries. We use the MERGE model to evaluate the core EMF scenarios for both the international and the US-specific studies. Our results indicate that a radiative forcing target equivalent to 450 ppmv CO2-e cannot be met even allowing for full participation and overshoot during the entire 21st cent...
58 CitationsSource
#1Richard S. J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute)H-Index: 88
Abstract This paper studies the feasibility of stringent targets for stabilizing ambient greenhouse gas concentrations using the FUND model. 170,000 policy scenarios were run, systematically varying the price of carbon, participation in climate policy, the strength of the climate feedback on the terrestrial carbon cycle, the no policy scenario, and the abatement costs. The results reveal the following. Climate policy has diminishing returns, and there is therefore a maximum to what can be achiev...
27 CitationsSource
#1Volker Krey (IIASA: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)H-Index: 38
#2Keywan Riahi (IIASA: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)H-Index: 67
The feasibility of limiting greenhouse gas concentrations and associated global mean temperature increase to 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels has recently attracted considerable scientific and policy attention. Whether or not such low targets can be achieved in the long-term depends on a number of assumptions about, for instance, technological change and the willingness of countries to immediately join a post-Kyoto agreement to limit anthropogenic climate change. As part of the EMF22 inter...
71 CitationsSource
#1Katherine V. Calvin (Joint Global Change Research Institute)H-Index: 40
#2Jae Edmonds (Joint Global Change Research Institute)H-Index: 50
Last. Marshall A. Wise (Joint Global Change Research Institute)H-Index: 34
view all 9 authors...
The EMF 22 subgroup on Transition Scenarios explores a rich suite of potential future worlds in which climate change is limited to a variety of alternative radiative forcing levels. This paper focuses primarily on the requirements to limit radiative forcing from Kyoto gases to 2.6 W/m2. Given that we estimate year 2005 radiative forcing to be 2.4 W/m2, the 2.6 W/m2 limit creates a non-trivial constraint. Allowing radiative forcing to exceed the long-term target level provides greater latitude in...
99 CitationsSource
#1Andrew Gurney (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics)H-Index: 3
#2Helal Ahammad (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics)H-Index: 13
Last. Melanie Ford (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics)H-Index: 5
view all 3 authors...
In this paper the Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) and MAGICC are used to simulate a number of global emission mitigation scenarios devised by the EMF 22 Transition Scenarios group in which radiative forcing goals and the architecture of developing economies' participation in hypothetical mitigation actions are varied. This paper presents a reference case of the world economy to 2100 and analyses some key regional and global results for the various global mitigation scenarios, including...
27 CitationsSource
#1Richard Loulou (McGill University)H-Index: 21
#2Maryse LabrietH-Index: 16
Last. Amit KanudiaH-Index: 18
view all 3 authors...
This article analyzes the feasibility of attaining a variety of climate targets during the 21st century, under alternative cooperation regimes by groups of countries. Five climate targets of increasing severity are analyzed, following the EMF-22 experiment. Each target is attempted under two cooperation regimes, a First Best scenario where all countries fully cooperate from 2012 on, and a Second Best scenario where the World is partitioned into three groups, and each group of countries enters th...
68 CitationsSource
Models and scenarios to assess greenhouse gas mitigation action have become more diversified and detailed, allowing the simulation of more realistic global climate policy set-ups. In this paper, different participation schemes to meet different levels of radiative forcing are analysed. The focus is on scenarios that are in line with the 2 °C target. Typical stylised participation schemes are based either on a perfect global carbon market or delayed participation with targets only for developed c...
16 CitationsSource
#1Jasper van Vliet (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)H-Index: 28
#2Michel G.J. den Elzen (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)H-Index: 43
Last. Detlef P. van Vuuren (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)H-Index: 79
view all 3 authors...
Abstract In this article we explore several scenarios that aim at meeting radiative forcing targets at 4.5, 3.7, 2.9 and 2.6 W/m 2 by 2100. These scenarios are run under the assumption of participation of all countries by 2012 in climate policy and under the assumption of a significant delay in the participation of Russia and non-Annex I countries (up to 2030 and 2050). The study finds the lowest radiative forcing categories to be feasible under full participation, certainly if overshoot of targ...
51 CitationsSource
Cited By395
Newest
#1Andres Pereira (UC: Pontifical Catholic University of Chile)
#2Enzo Sauma (UC: Pontifical Catholic University of Chile)H-Index: 18
Abstract This article analyzes the effects of implementing a two-stage carbon tax on a ten-year power expansion planning model. The timing effect of the tax is analyzed by studying the costs, capacity investments, economic dispatch, and CO 2 emissions in fixed (flat) and two-stage tax schemes. Results show that, under the absence of political economy constraints, the most cost-effective solution is to have a low CO 2 tax in the first stage and an optimal (higher) tax in the final stage. However,...
Source
#1Dhabia M. Al-Mohannadi (Texas A&M University at Qatar)H-Index: 4
#2Gihong Kwak (Texas A&M University at Qatar)
Last. Patrick Linke (Texas A&M University at Qatar)H-Index: 24
view all 3 authors...
Abstract Multi-period carbon integration identified CO2 reduction schemes over a time horizon towards a specified target. Previously proposed multi-period approaches involving mixed integer non-linear formulations are difficult to solve. This paper introduces a two-step optimization approach to evaluate CO2 reduction policies using a mixed integer linear program (MILP) through decomposition. The first step includes an exhaustive search of optimal low cost source-sink connections to process non-l...
Source
Abstract In this paper we employ an agent-based integrated assessment model to study the likelihood of transition to green, sustainable growth in presence of climate damages. The model comprises heterogeneous fossil-fuel and renewable plants, capital- and consumption-good firms and a climate box linking greenhouse gasses emission to temperature dynamics and microeconomic climate shocks affecting labour productivity and energy demand of firms. Simulation results show that the economy possesses tw...
Source
#1Jonathan CamuzeauxH-Index: 2
#2Thomas Sterner (University of Gothenburg)H-Index: 32
Last. Gernot Wagner (NYU: New York University)H-Index: 14
view all 3 authors...
China and the United States are the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, making them pivotal players in global climate negotiations. Within the coming decade, however, India is set to become the most important counterpart to the United States, as it overtakes China as the country with the most at stake depending on the type of global burden-sharing agreements reached, thus becoming a member of the ‘Climate G2’. We create a hypothetical global carbon market based on modelling emissions reduc...
Source
#1Enrica De Cian (European Institute)H-Index: 22
#2Shouro Dasgupta (European Institute)H-Index: 4
Last. Detlef P. van Vuuren (UU: Utrecht University)H-Index: 79
view all 7 authors...
Increasing the realism with respect to the representation of actors, decision-making, and institutions is critical to better understand the transition towards a low-carbon sustainable society since actors, decision-making, and institutions are the defining elements of transition pathways. In this paper, we explore how this can be done by conducting a model-based scenario analysis. The increasing focus on implementation and transition dynamics towards long-term objectives requires a better compre...
4 CitationsSource
#1Mariësse A.E. van Sluisveld (UU: Utrecht University)H-Index: 8
#2Andries F. Hof (UU: Utrecht University)H-Index: 22
Last. Detlef P. van Vuuren (UU: Utrecht University)H-Index: 79
view all 8 authors...
In this study, we present and apply an interdisciplinary approach that systematically draws qualitative insights from socio-technical transition studies to develop new quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment modelling. We identify the transition narrative as an analytical bridge between socio-technical transition studies and integrated assessment modelling. Conceptual interaction is realised through the development of two contrasting transition narratives on the role of actors in meetin...
5 CitationsSource
1 CitationsSource
#1Gabriele Gramelsberger (RWTH Aachen University)H-Index: 6
Die Gegenwartigkeit des Virtuellen zeigt sich in keinem lebensweltlichen Bereich so deutlich wie in meteorologischen Belangen. Ob Wetter- oder Klimavorhersagen, das virtuelle Wetter der nachsten Tage und das virtuelle Klima der kommenden Jahre ist uns zum vertraut-gegenwartigen Alltagswissen geworden, das unser Handeln bestimmt. Ganz selbstverstandlich nehmen wir den Regenschirm mit, wenn fur spater Niederschlag angekundigt ist. Wir kontrollieren unseren okologischen Fusabdruck in Hinblick auf d...
Source
Wind technology is projected to play a key role in mitigating climate change effects and contributing to the reduction of CO2 emissions, but its sustainability critically depends on current and future climate conditions. In this study, the climate change impacts on wind resources and wind energy potential in Greece are assessed, yielding a wealth of information that could be used by stakeholders. A detailed evaluation of future wind characteristics over Greece is carried out using EURO-CORDEX RC...
Source
#1Amin Sepehri (NAU: Northern Arizona University)
#2Brent A. Nelson (NAU: Northern Arizona University)H-Index: 13
Abstract Energy storage systems provide a variety of benefits to the electricity sector, including taking better advantage of renewable electricity when available and smoothing demand by shifting peaks to times when electricity prices and demand are lower. When low electricity demand occurs during the nighttime, additional benefits of overnight energy storage can also occur. Lower nighttime ambient temperatures can lead to efficiency improvements throughout the grid, including power generators, ...
Source