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Region-wide changes in marine ecosystem dynamics: state-space models to distinguish trends from step changes

Published on Apr 1, 2012in Global Change Biology 8.88
· DOI :10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02620.x
Matthew Spencer20
Estimated H-index: 20
(University of Liverpool),
Nova Mieszkowska29
Estimated H-index: 29
(Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom)
+ 15 AuthorsChris Frid32
Estimated H-index: 32
(University of Liverpool)
Cite
Abstract
Regime shifts are sudden changes in ecosystem structure that can be detected across several ecosystem components. The concept that regime shifts are common in marine ecosystems has gained popularity in recent years. Many studies have searched for the step-like changes in ecosystem state expected under a simple interpretation of this idea. However, other kinds of change, such as pervasive trends, have often been ignored. We assembled over 300 ecological time series from seven UK marine regions, covering two to three decades. We developed state-space models for the first principal component of the time series in each region, a common measure of ecosystem state. Our models allowed both trends and step changes, possibly in combination. We found trends in three of seven regions and step changes in two of seven regions. Gradual and sudden changes are therefore important trajectories to consider in marine ecosystems.
  • References (70)
  • Citations (16)
Cite
References70
Newest
Published on Jul 1, 2014
Julian J. Faraway26
Estimated H-index: 26
(University of Bath)
Introduction Before You Start Initial Data Analysis When to Use Linear Modeling History Estimation Linear Model Matrix Representation Estimating b Least Squares Estimation Examples of Calculating b Example QR Decomposition Gauss-Markov Theorem Goodness of Fit Identifiability Orthogonality Inference Hypothesis Tests to Compare Models Testing Examples Permutation Tests Sampling Confidence Intervals for b Bootstrap Confidence Intervals Prediction Confidence Intervals for Predictions Predicting Body...
Published on Mar 1, 2012in Marine Ecology
Katja Enberg17
Estimated H-index: 17
(University of Bergen),
Christian Jørgensen29
Estimated H-index: 29
(University of Bergen)
+ 5 AuthorsMikko Heino43
Estimated H-index: 43
(University of Bergen)
The interest in fishing-induced life-history evolution has been growing in the last decade, in part because of the increasing number of studies suggesting evolutionary changes in life-history traits, and the potential ecological and economic consequences these changes may have. Among the traits that could evolve in response to fishing, growth has lately received attention. However, critical reading of the literature on growth evolution in fish reveals conceptual confusion about the nature of ‘gr...
Published on Jan 1, 2012in OUP Catalogue
J. Durbin35
Estimated H-index: 35
(LSE: London School of Economics and Political Science),
Siem Jan Koopman43
Estimated H-index: 43
This excellent text provides a comprehensive treatment of the state space approach to time series analysis. The distinguishing feature of state space time series models is that observations are regarded as made up of distinct components such as trend, seasonal, regression elements and disturbence terms, each of which is modelled separately. The techniques that emerge from this approach are very flexible and are capable of handling a much wider range of problems than the main analytical system cu...
Published on Sep 1, 2011in Current Biology 9.19
Stephen D. Simpson29
Estimated H-index: 29
(UoB: University of Bristol),
Simon Jennings78
Estimated H-index: 78
(UEA: University of East Anglia)
+ 4 AuthorsMartin J. Genner25
Estimated H-index: 25
(UoB: University of Bristol)
Summary Climate change affects marine biological processes from genetic to ecosystem levels [1–3]. Recent warming in the northeast Atlantic [4, 5] has caused distributional shifts in some fish species along latitudinal and depth gradients [6, 7], but such changes, as predicted by climate envelope models [8], may often be prevented because population movement requires availability of suitable habitat. We assessed the full impacts of warming on the commercially important European continental shelf...
Published on Sep 1, 2011in Nature 43.07
Kenneth T. Frank39
Estimated H-index: 39
(BIO: Bedford Institute of Oceanography),
Brian Petrie30
Estimated H-index: 30
(BIO: Bedford Institute of Oceanography)
+ 1 AuthorsWilliam C. Leggett48
Estimated H-index: 48
(Queen's University)
Cod populations in the northwest Atlantic suffered a sudden and dramatic collapse about 20 years ago, and despite the subsequent ban on cod fishing there has been no appreciable recovery in the intervening years. Frank et al. report on the nature of the collapse and the reasons for its persistence. They find that the prolonged duration of the alternate (collapsed) state of the ecosystem was governed by the oscillatory, runaway consumption dynamics of the predator's former prey forage fish. These...
Published on May 27, 2011in Science 41.04
Stephen R. Carpenter110
Estimated H-index: 110
(UW: University of Wisconsin-Madison),
Jonathan J. Cole80
Estimated H-index: 80
+ 9 AuthorsDavid A. Seekell19
Estimated H-index: 19
(UVA: University of Virginia)
Catastrophic ecological regime shifts may be announced in advance by statistical early warning signals such as slowing return rates from perturbation and rising variance. The theoretical background for these indicators is rich, but real-world tests are rare, especially for whole ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that these statistics would be early warning signals for an experimentally induced regime shift in an aquatic food web. We gradually added top predators to a lake over 3 years to dest...
Published on Apr 1, 2011in Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 2.37
Chris Frid32
Estimated H-index: 32
(University of Liverpool)
More than thirty years of data at two benthic stations in the North Sea show periods of stable species composition with decadal shifts. This paper examined the extent to which these shifts alter ecosystem functioning and hence provision of ‘ecosystem goods and services’. Ecosystem functioning results from the biological activity of the organisms present and changes in the life style, behaviour and morphology of the species present at a site alter system functioning. As an exploratory technique, ...
Published on Apr 1, 2011in Marine Ecology
Matthew Spencer20
Estimated H-index: 20
(University of Liverpool),
Silvana N.R. Birchenough14
Estimated H-index: 14
(Suffolk University)
+ 15 AuthorsC. D. Duck12
Estimated H-index: 12
(Sea Mammal Research Unit)
A regime shift is a large, sudden, and long-lasting change in the dynamics of an ecosystem, affecting multiple trophic levels. There are a growing number of papers that report regime shifts in marine ecosystems. However, the evidence for regime shifts is equivocal, because the methods used to detect them are not yet well developed. We have collated over 300 biological time series from seven marine regions around the UK, covering the ecosystem from phytoplankton to marine mammals. Each time serie...
Published on Sep 1, 2010in Nature 43.07
John M. Drake38
Estimated H-index: 38
(UGA: University of Georgia),
Blaine D. Griffen18
Estimated H-index: 18
(USC: University of South Carolina)
Populations that become extinct because of environmental degradation pass a tipping point, after which extinction is inevitable. But theory predicts that the population's dynamics indicate what is coming beforehand, through the phenomenon of critical slowing down. It has now been shown that critical slowing down can be used to anticipate extinction in experimental populations of Daphnia magna.
Published on Aug 26, 2010in Marine Ecology Progress Series 2.36
Peter S. Petraitis26
Estimated H-index: 26
(UPenn: University of Pennsylvania),
Catharine Hoffman1
Estimated H-index: 1
The concept of thresholds is applied broadly in ecology to both processes and states that exhibit step-like behavior. Thresholds are observed in parameters, equilibrium states, and in states over time, but presence or absence of thresholds at any of these levels does not provide information about the occurrence of thresholds at the other levels. Here we explore the relationship between thresholds and theory of multiple stable states. We present a 2-species Lotka-Volterra model of competition to ...
Cited By16
Newest
Published on Nov 1, 2017in Marine Pollution Bulletin 3.78
Stephen J. Hawkins64
Estimated H-index: 64
(NOCS: National Oceanography Centre, Southampton),
A. J. Evans1
Estimated H-index: 1
(NOCS: National Oceanography Centre, Southampton)
+ 12 AuthorsPhilippa Moore8
Estimated H-index: 8
(Aberystwyth University)
Marine ecosystems are subject to anthropogenic change at global, regional and local scales. Global drivers interact with regional- and local-scale impacts of both a chronic and acute nature. Natural fluctuations and those driven by climate change need to be understood to diagnose local- and regional-scale impacts, and to inform assessments of recovery. Three case studies are used to illustrate the need for long-term studies: (i) separation of the influence of fishing pressure from climate change...
Published on Jul 1, 2017in Oikos 3.47
David S. Clare3
Estimated H-index: 3
(University of Liverpool),
Matthew Spencer20
Estimated H-index: 20
(University of Liverpool)
+ 1 AuthorsChris Frid32
Estimated H-index: 32
(Griffith University)
Predicting the ecological consequences of environmental change requires that we can identify the drivers of long-term ecological variation. Biological assemblages can exhibit abrupt deviations from temporal trends, potentially resulting in irreversible shifts in species composition over short periods of time. Such dynamics are hypothesised to occur as gradual forcing eventually causes biological thresholds to be crossed, but could also be explained by biota simply tracking abrupt changes to thei...
Published on Jan 1, 2017in Marine Pollution Bulletin 3.78
Giulia Gatti3
Estimated H-index: 3
(AMU: Aix-Marseille University),
Carlo Nike Bianchi34
Estimated H-index: 34
(UniGe: University of Genoa)
+ 3 AuthorsCarla Morri34
Estimated H-index: 34
(UniGe: University of Genoa)
Abstract The dearth of long-time series hampers the measurement of the ecosystem change that followed the global marine climate shift of the 1980–90s. The sessile communities of Portofino Promontory reefs (Ligurian Sea, NW Mediterranean) have been discontinuously studied since the 1950s. Collating information from various sources, three periods of investigations have been distinguished: 1) 1950–70s; 2) 1980–90s; 3) 2000–10s. A cooler phase in time 1 was followed by a rapid warming in time 2, to ...
Published on Jan 1, 2016in Advances in Ecological Research 5.72
Nova Mieszkowska29
Estimated H-index: 29
(University of Liverpool),
H Sugden3
Estimated H-index: 3
(Newcastle University)
Abstract Anthropogenic climate change is causing unprecedented rapid responses in marine communities, with species across many different taxonomic groups showing faster shifts in biogeographic ranges than in any other ecosystem. Spatial and temporal trends for many marine species are difficult to quantify, however, due to the lack of long-term datasets across complete geographical distributions and the occurrence of small-scale variability from both natural and anthropogenic drivers. Understandi...
Published on Sep 1, 2015in Progress in Oceanography 3.25
Timothy J. Smyth35
Estimated H-index: 35
(PML: Plymouth Marine Laboratory),
Angus Atkinson40
Estimated H-index: 40
(PML: Plymouth Marine Laboratory)
+ 6 AuthorsManuel Barange33
Estimated H-index: 33
(PML: Plymouth Marine Laboratory)
Published on May 1, 2015in Global Change Biology 8.88
Paraskevas Vasilakopoulos8
Estimated H-index: 8
(Aberd.: University of Aberdeen),
C. Tara Marshall21
Estimated H-index: 21
(Aberd.: University of Aberdeen)
Complex natural systems with eroded resilience, such as populations, ecosystems and socio-ecological systems, respond to small perturbations with abrupt, discontinuous state shifts, or critical transitions. Theory of critical transitions suggests that such systems exhibit fold bifurcations featuring folded response curves, tipping points and alternate attractors. However, there is little empirical evidence of fold bifurcations occurring in actual complex natural systems impacted by multiple stre...
Published on Oct 22, 2014in Marine Ecology Progress Series 2.36
Anthony J. Gaston43
Estimated H-index: 43
,
Kyle H. Elliott24
Estimated H-index: 24
Ongoing climate change is altering Arctic marine ecosystems with major conse- quences for food-webs. Seabirds, by foraging over large marine areas but returning regularly to their breeding colonies, provide a good medium for tracking such changes. We studied the prey delivered to nestling thick-billed murres Uria lomvia at a colony in northern Hudson Bay, Canada, over the period 1981−2013. During that period, ice conditions in the region altered substantially, with earlier break-up and clearance...
Published on May 1, 2014in Journal of Marine Systems 2.54
Nova Mieszkowska29
Estimated H-index: 29
,
Michael T. Burrows38
Estimated H-index: 38
(SAMS: Scottish Association for Marine Science)
+ 1 AuthorsStephen J. Hawkins64
Estimated H-index: 64
(NOCS: National Oceanography Centre, Southampton)
Few links have been established between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and long-term dynamics of marine systems due to the scarcity of sustained biological time-series with sufficient multi-decadal coverage. The abundances of co-occurring boreal and Lusitanian species of barnacle have been recorded annually at a rocky shore in Devon, southwest England since 1953. Multidecadal cycles in relative abundances of the cold-water Semibalanus balanoides and warm-water Chthamalus spp. are strongly...
Published on Jan 1, 2014in Progress in Oceanography 3.25
Michael A. Litzow10
Estimated H-index: 10
(UTAS: University of Tasmania),
Franz J. Mueter16
Estimated H-index: 16
(UAF: University of Alaska Fairbanks)
We used an indicator approach to address outstanding questions concerning the ecological importance of low-frequency climate variability in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Our data consist of a previously-published set of 33 climate and 64 biology time series, updated by us for the years 1965–2011 (for climate data) and 1965–2008 (for biology data). A model-selection approach showed that the first axis of variability in large-scale climate indices (PC1ci), the first and second axes for local climat...
Published on Jan 1, 2014in Global Change Biology 8.88
Michael A. Litzow10
Estimated H-index: 10
(UTAS: University of Tasmania),
Franz J. Mueter16
Estimated H-index: 16
(UAF: University of Alaska Fairbanks),
Alistair J. Hobday48
Estimated H-index: 48
(O&A: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)
In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts – abrupt changes in modes of low-frequency climate variability – are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal-scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Ni~ Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain deca...