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Combined effects of climate, predation, and density dependence on Greater and Lesser Scaup population dynamics

Published on Sep 1, 2015in Ecological Applications4.38
· DOI :10.1890/14-0582.1
Beth E. Ross5
Estimated H-index: 5
(USU: Utah State University),
Mevin B. Hooten27
Estimated H-index: 27
(CSU: Colorado State University)
+ 1 AuthorsDavid N. Koons22
Estimated H-index: 22
(USU: Utah State University)
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Abstract
An understanding of species relationships is critical in the management and conservation of populations facing climate change, yet few studies address how climate alters species interactions and other population drivers. We use a long-term, broad-scale data set of relative abundance to examine the influence of climate, predators, and density dependence on the population dynamics of declining scaup ( Aythya ) species within the core of their breeding range. The state-space modeling approach we use applies to a wide range of wildlife species, especially populations monitored over broad spatiotemporal extents. Using this approach, we found that immediate snow cover extent in the preceding winter and spring had the strongest effects, with increases in mean snow cover extent having a positive effect on the local surveyed abundance of scaup. The direct effects of mesopredator abundance on scaup population dynamics were weaker, but the results still indicated a potential interactive process between climate and food web dynamics (mesopredators, alternative prey, and scaup). By considering climate variables and other potential effects on population dynamics, and using a rigorous estimation framework, we provide insight into complex ecological processes for guiding conservation and policy actions aimed at mitigating and reversing the decline of scaup.
  • References (52)
  • Citations (15)
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References52
Newest
Published on Feb 1, 2015in Ecological Monographs7.70
Mevin B. Hooten27
Estimated H-index: 27
,
N.T. Hobbs1
Estimated H-index: 1
(CSU: Colorado State University)
The steady upward trend in the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in ecological research has made it clear that both approaches to inference are important for modern analysis of models and data. However, in teaching Bayesian methods and in working with our research colleagues, we have noticed a general dissatisfaction with the available literature on Bayesian model selection and multimodel inference. Students and researchers new to Bayesian methods quickly find that the published advice...
Published on Jan 1, 2014in Acta Theriologica
Jana Zschille4
Estimated H-index: 4
(TUD: Dresden University of Technology),
Norman Stier12
Estimated H-index: 12
(TUD: Dresden University of Technology)
+ 1 AuthorsRené Mayer1
Estimated H-index: 1
(TUD: Dresden University of Technology)
In order to collect ecological data of invasive American mink (Neovison vison) at a fishpond area in northeastern Germany, we conducted a telemetry study in which 14 mink were radio-tracked. During this project, 2,502 scats from radio-tracked individuals were collected in the period from October 2003 to October 2005. Investigated mink principally prey on fish, small mammals and birds (eggs inclusive), whereas amphibians, reptiles and invertebrates were caught infrequently. Analysing mink scats o...
Published on Sep 1, 2013in Global Change Biology8.88
Chuan Yan7
Estimated H-index: 7
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Nils Chr. Stenseth82
Estimated H-index: 82
(University of Oslo)
+ 1 AuthorsZhibin Zhang33
Estimated H-index: 33
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)
The classic 10-year population cycle of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus, Erxleben 1777) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis, Kerr 1792) in the boreal forests of North America has drawn much attention from both population and community ecologists worldwide; however, the ecological mechanisms driving the 10-year cyclic dynamic pattern are not fully revealed yet. In this study, by the use of historic fur harvest data, we constructed a series of generalized additive models to study the effects of dens...
Published on Jul 1, 2013in Ecological Applications4.38
Johann Walker10
Estimated H-index: 10
(Ducks Unlimited),
Jay J. Rotella30
Estimated H-index: 30
(MSU: Montana State University)
+ 4 AuthorsAaron J. Smith3
Estimated H-index: 3
(Ducks Unlimited)
The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is the primary breeding region for most species of North American dabbling ducks (Anas spp.). Conservation of these species is guided in part by knowledge of relationships between nest survival probability and habitat features. Positive relationships between duck nest survival and amount and configuration of herbaceous perennial vegetation have been observed in previous studies, but these 2- to 4-year studies might not have adequately characterized the temporal e...
Published on Jul 1, 2013in Journal of Theoretical Biology1.88
E. van Leeuwen4
Estimated H-index: 4
(RHUL: Royal Holloway, University of London),
Åke Brännström19
Estimated H-index: 19
(Umeå University)
+ 2 AuthorsAxel G. Rossberg24
Estimated H-index: 24
(Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science)
We develop a theory for the food intake of a predator that can switch between multiple prey species. The theory addresses empirical observations of prey switching and is based on the behavioural as ...
Published on Jan 1, 2013in Journal of Wildlife Management1.88
Jean-Dominique Lebreton48
Estimated H-index: 48
(CNRS: Centre national de la recherche scientifique),
Olivier Gimenez39
Estimated H-index: 39
(CNRS: Centre national de la recherche scientifique)
We review methods for detecting and assessing the strength of density dependence based on 2 types of approaches: surveys of population size and studies of life history traits, in particular demographic parameters. For the first type of studies, methods neglecting uncertainty in population size should definitely be abandoned. Bayesian approaches to simple state-space models accounting for uncertainty in population size are recommended, with some caution because of numerical difficulties and risks...
Published on Nov 16, 2012in PLOS ONE2.78
Beth E. Ross5
Estimated H-index: 5
(USU: Utah State University),
Melvin B. Hooten3
Estimated H-index: 3
(CSU: Colorado State University),
David N. Koons22
Estimated H-index: 22
(USU: Utah State University)
A common goal in ecology and wildlife management is to determine the causes of variation in population dynamics over long periods of time and across large spatial scales. Many assumptions must nevertheless be overcome to make appropriate inference about spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics, such as autocorrelation among data points, excess zeros, and observation error in count data. To address these issues, many scientists and statisticians have recommended the use of Bayesian hierar...
Published on Sep 1, 2012in Journal of Animal Ecology4.36
Pablo Almaraz7
Estimated H-index: 7
(CSIC: Spanish National Research Council),
Andy J. Green46
Estimated H-index: 46
(CSIC: Spanish National Research Council)
+ 2 AuthorsJavier Bustamante30
Estimated H-index: 30
(CSIC: Spanish National Research Council)
Summary 1. Understanding the impact of environmental variability on migrating species requires the estimation of sequential abiotic effects in different geographic areas across the life cycle. For instance, waterfowl (ducks, geese and swans) usually breed widely dispersed throughout their breeding range and gather in large numbers in their wintering headquarters, but there is a lack of knowledge on the effects of the sequential environmental conditions experienced by migrating birds on the long-...
Published on Sep 1, 2012in Journal of Animal Ecology4.36
R. McCaffery1
Estimated H-index: 1
(UM: University of Montana),
Antti Solonen12
Estimated H-index: 12
(Lappeenranta University of Technology),
Elizabeth E. Crone32
Estimated H-index: 32
(UM: University of Montana)
Summary 1. World-wide extinctions of amphibians are at the forefront of the biodiversity crisis, with climate change figuring prominently as a potential driver of continued amphibian decline. As in other taxa, changes in both the mean and variability of climate conditions may affect amphibian populations in complex, unpredictable ways. In western North America, climate models predict a reduced duration and extent of mountain snowpack and increased variability in precipitation, which may have con...
Published on Jun 22, 2012in Science41.04
Phoebe L. Zarnetske13
Estimated H-index: 13
(Yale University),
David K. Skelly40
Estimated H-index: 40
(Yale University),
Mark C. Urban28
Estimated H-index: 28
(UConn: University of Connecticut)
Many species face uncertain fates under climate change. Some will persist by shifting their range or adapting to local conditions, whereas others will be lost to extinction. Efforts to lessen the impacts of climate change on biodiversity depend on accurate forecasts. Most studies aiming to identify likely winners and losers consider species one at a time with a “climate envelope” approach that correlates species' occurrences with climatic and environmental variables. Using this method, researche...
Cited By15
Newest
Published on Jul 1, 2018in The Auk2.66
Kevin M. Ringelman7
Estimated H-index: 7
(LSU: Louisiana State University),
Johann Walker10
Estimated H-index: 10
(Ducks Unlimited)
+ 1 AuthorsScott E. Stephens11
Estimated H-index: 11
(Ducks Unlimited)
ABSTRACT Nest survival is determined in part by a combination of large-scale environmental factors and local nest-site characteristics. Because predation is the primary cause of nest failure, those drivers likely operate by influencing predator abundance, behavior, and/or nest detectability. For example, fluctuations in landscape productivity have the potential to alter predator and prey abundance, whereas nest vegetation and patterns of nest spacing may influence predator behavior. We used 8 yr...
Published on Feb 1, 2018in Journal of Wildlife Management1.88
Beth E. Ross5
Estimated H-index: 5
,
David A. Haukos22
Estimated H-index: 22
,
Patrick Walther1
Estimated H-index: 1
Understanding the relative influence of environmental and intrinsic effects on populations is important for managing and conserving harvested species, especially those species inhabiting changing environments. Additionally, climate change can increase the uncertainty associated with management of species in these changing environments, making understanding factors affecting their populations even more important. Coastal ecosystems are particularly threatened by climate change; the combined effec...
Published on Feb 1, 2018in Journal of Wildlife Management1.88
Todd W. Arnold26
Estimated H-index: 26
,
Robert G. Clark37
Estimated H-index: 37
+ 1 AuthorsMichael Schaub40
Estimated H-index: 40
(Swiss Ornithological Institute)
Published on Jan 1, 2018in Global Change Biology8.88
S. M. Amburgey6
Estimated H-index: 6
(PSU: Pennsylvania State University),
David A. W. Miller20
Estimated H-index: 20
(PSU: Pennsylvania State University)
+ 16 AuthorsChristopher J. Davis7
Estimated H-index: 7
(University of Pittsburgh)
Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model li...
Published on Nov 1, 2017in Royal Society Open Science2.52
Aaron C. Greenville15
Estimated H-index: 15
(Long Term Ecological Research Network),
Glenda M. Wardle22
Estimated H-index: 22
(Long Term Ecological Research Network),
Chris R. Dickman57
Estimated H-index: 57
(Long Term Ecological Research Network)
Climate change is predicted to place up to one in six species at risk of extinction in coming decades, but extinction probability is likely to be influenced further by biotic interactions such as predation. We use structural equation modelling to integrate results from remote camera trapping and long-term (17–22 years) regional-scale (8000 km 2 ) datasets on vegetation and small vertebrates (greater than 38 880 captures) to explore how biotic processes and two key abiotic drivers influence the s...
Published on Oct 1, 2017in Ecological Applications4.38
David N. Koons22
Estimated H-index: 22
(CSU: Colorado State University),
Todd W. Arnold26
Estimated H-index: 26
(UMN: University of Minnesota),
Michael Schaub40
Estimated H-index: 40
(Swiss Ornithological Institute)
Identifying the demographic parameters (e.g., reproduction, survival, dispersal) that most influence population dynamics can increase conservation effectiveness and enhance ecological understanding. Life table response experiments (LTRE) aim to decompose the effects of change in parameters on past demographic outcomes (e.g., population growth rates). But the vast majority of LTREs and other retrospective population analyses have focused on decomposing asymptotic population growth rates, which do...
Published on Sep 1, 2017in Journal of Wildlife Management1.88
Todd W. Arnold26
Estimated H-index: 26
,
Alan D. Afton30
Estimated H-index: 30
+ 2 AuthorsChris A. Nicolai2
Estimated H-index: 2
We recently analyzed long-term (1951–2011) continental band-recovery data from lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) and demonstrated that harvest rates declined through time, but annual survival rates exhibited no such trends; moreover, annual harvest and survival rates were uncorrelated for all age-sex classes. We therefore concluded that declining fecundity was most likely responsible for recent population declines, rather than changes in harvest or survival. Lindberg et al. (2017) critiqued our conc...
Published on Sep 1, 2017in Journal of Wildlife Management1.88
Mark S. Lindberg21
Estimated H-index: 21
,
G. Scott Boomer7
Estimated H-index: 7
+ 1 AuthorsJohann Walker10
Estimated H-index: 10
Concerns about declines in the abundance of lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) have promoted a number of analyses to understand reasons for this decline. Unfortunately, most of these analyses, including that of Arnold et al. (2016 Journal of Wildlife Management 80: 850–861), are based on observational studies leading to weak inference. Although we commend the efforts of Arnold et al. (2016 Journal of Wildlife Management 80: 850–861), we think their conclusions are over-stated given their retrospectiv...
Published on Sep 1, 2017in Ecological Modelling2.63
Qing Zhao8
Estimated H-index: 8
(CSU: Colorado State University),
G. Scott Boomer7
Estimated H-index: 7
(FWS: United States Fish and Wildlife Service)
+ 1 AuthorsKathy Fleming4
Estimated H-index: 4
(FWS: United States Fish and Wildlife Service)
Population dynamics models incorporating density dependence and habitat heterogeneity are useful tools to explain and project the spatiotemporal variation of wildlife abundance. Despite their wide application in ecology and conservation biology, the inference and projection of these models may be problematic when residual spatial autocorrelation (SAC) is found. We aimed to improve the inference and projection of population dynamics models by accounting for residual SAC. We considered three Gompe...
Published on Jun 1, 2017in Ecological Applications4.38
Adrian P. Monroe6
Estimated H-index: 6
(USGS: United States Geological Survey),
Cameron L. Aldridge20
Estimated H-index: 20
(USGS: United States Geological Survey)
+ 3 AuthorsMichael L. Casazza16
Estimated H-index: 16
(USGS: United States Geological Survey)
Human land use, such as livestock grazing, can have profound yet varied effects on wildlife interacting within common ecosystems, yet our understanding of land-use effects is often generalized from short-term, local studies that may not correspond with trends at broader scales. Here we used public land records to characterize livestock grazing across Wyoming, USA, and we used Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) as a model organism to evaluate responses to livestock management. With a...