Fair-Balance Paradox, Star-tree Paradox, and Bayesian Phylogenetics

The star-tree paradox refers to the conjecture that the posterior probabilities for the three unrooted trees for four species (or the three rooted trees for three species if the molecular clock is assumed) do not approach 1/3 when the data are generated using the star tree and when the amount of data approaches infinity. It reflects the more general phenomenon of high and presumably spurious posterior probabilities for trees or clades produced...