Are the Fed’s inflation forecasts still superior to the private sector’s?

We examine the relative improvement in forecasting accuracy of the Federal Reserve (Greenbook forecasts) and private-sector forecasts (the Survey of Professional Forecasters and Blue Chip Economic Indicators)for inflation. Previous research by Romer and Romer [Romer, Christina, David, Romer, 2000. Federal reserve information and the behavior of interest rates. American Economic Review 90, 429–457], and Sims [Sims, Christopher, 2002. The role of...