On the meaning of a black swan in a risk context

In recent years there has been much focus on the so-called black swans in relation to risk management and decision making under uncertainty. A key issue has been the ability of risk assessment and probability theory to capture the black swans. In this paper we carry out an in-depth analysis of what a black swan means in relation to risk, uncertainty and probability: is a black swan just an extreme event with a very low probability or is it a...