Have we put an end to social promotion? Changes in school progress among children aged 6 to 17 from 1972 to 2005

We examine trends over time in the proportion of children below the modal grade for their age (BMG), a proxy for grade retention, and in the effects of its demographic and socioeconomic correlates. We estimate a logistic regression model with partial constraints predicting BMG using the annual October school enrollment supplements of the Current Population Survey. This model identifies systematic variation in the effects of social background...