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Africa 2010‐2020: poverty reduction beyond the global crisis

Published on May 31, 2011in Foresight
· DOI :10.1108/14636681111138749
Joe Ballantyne2
Estimated H-index: 2
,
Andrew Curry2
Estimated H-index: 2
,
Andy Sumner20
Estimated H-index: 20
(University of Sussex)
Abstract
Purpose – What are the implications of the global financial crisis and its aftermath, regionally and globally, for Africa taking a 5‐15 year view? The purpose of this paper is to outline a set of four post‐crisis global economic scenarios to 2020, and will consider their impacts across a range of low income countries.Design/methodology/approach – The scenarios were developed using a version of the morphological scenarios approach, Field anomaly relaxation (FAR). This approach creates a backdrop of internally consistent futures for policy formation and decision making through identifying and analysing the most significant drivers of change within the global financial and political system. This was then linked to a modelling approach to identify country impacts. The work was developed and tested with stakeholders in the United Kingdom and Kenya.Findings – Scenarios are plausible, coherent, multiple views of the future, which enable policy‐makers and managers to evaluate strategy or policy choices under cond...
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