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Cancer incidence in the United Kingdom: projections to the year 2030

Published on Nov 1, 2011in British Journal of Cancer5.42
· DOI :10.1038/bjc.2011.430
M Mistry1
Estimated H-index: 1
,
D M Parkin1
Estimated H-index: 1
+ 1 AuthorsPeter Sasieni49
Estimated H-index: 49
Cite
Abstract
Quantifying the future burden of cancer incidence and mortality, in terms of expected numbers of cases and deaths, or rates of disease, is important in optimising the allocation of resources for screening, diagnostic, therapeutic and palliative services and to provide a baseline from which the success of future interventions can be judged (Bray and Moller, 2006). The future number of cases (or deaths) is a consequence of two components of change; the evolution of the size and age structure of the population (demographic component) and changes in the rates of disease. The latter component is generally evaluated by some form of projection – likely future trends are estimated on the basis of those observed in the past. A distinction should be made between what we refer to as ‘projections' and ‘predictions'. We use the term ‘projections' for the extrapolation of observed trends in incidence rates that do not explicitly take into account expected changes in factors influencing risk (in a positive or negative way). By contrast, we use ‘predictions' to be statements about the future that take into account all known trends and likely future changes in risk factors. Predictions necessarily involve some sort of modelling: incorporating data on postulated future change in factors that affect risk, the components of the population likely to be involved, the size of the effect (relative risk) and latency between exposure and outcome. Several statistical methods have been used to make projections of future cancer burden. While short-term projections may assume continuation of past rates of change – generally within specific age groups – projections over the longer term need to model more complex interactions, incorporating the past components of change due to the effects of age, calendar period and birth cohort, and making explicit assumptions about the extent to which past changes are likely to operate into the future (Moller et al, 2003; Sedjo et al, 2007; Olsen et al, 2008). In the United Kingdom, previous studies have used such models to generate cancer mortality projections up to the year 2025 (Olsen et al, 2008), and cancer incidence projections up to the year 2020 for England (Moller et al, 2007). In this paper, we use data on the incidence of cancer in Great Britain (GB: England, Scotland and Wales) between 1975 and 2007 to make projections of the future rates of 28 types of cancer in the United Kingdom up to 2030, and estimate the corresponding future burden in terms of numbers of cases, using national population projections. Compared with the paper by Moller et al (2007), we use data for the United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) rather than England, include data for 2004–2007 and make projections for prostate and bladder cancers (which they avoided) and use methodology that takes into account changes in breast screening when modelling breast cancer rates.
  • References (14)
  • Citations (159)
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References14
Newest
Published on Jun 1, 2009in European Journal of Cancer6.68
Donald Maxwell Parkin6
Estimated H-index: 6
(QMUL: Queen Mary University of London)
Abstract There has been a substantial decline in the use of female sex hormone replacement therapy (HRT) in the United Kingdom, particularly by post-menopausal women, since around 2000–2001. Given what is known of the risk of breast cancer in women receiving HRT, the decline in use should have resulted in a decrease in risk, and incidence rates about 14% lower than expected were predicted for the age group 50–59 in 2005. There has been a recent slowing and reversal of the increasing trends in in...
Published on Dec 1, 2008in Journal of Medical Screening2.13
D. M. Parkin54
Estimated H-index: 54
,
Paul Tappenden32
Estimated H-index: 32
+ 2 AuthorsPeter Sasieni49
Estimated H-index: 49
ObjectivesScreening for colorectal cancer by biennial testing for faecal occult blood is being introduced in the UK from 2007. We examine the likely impact of the programme, in terms of reduced mortality, lives saved and changes in incidence, over the next 20 years.SettingProjections of incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in England, and the policy that has been adopted for screening in England (biennial at ages 60–69 from 2007, then 60–74 in 2010).MethodsThe results are based on the ou...
Published on Nov 1, 2008in British Journal of Cancer5.42
Anne Helene Olsen25
Estimated H-index: 25
,
D. M. Parkin54
Estimated H-index: 54
,
Peter Sasieni49
Estimated H-index: 49
The purpose of this study was to project mortality rates in the United Kingdom for the period 2006–2025 for 21 major cancers on the basis of the observed trends in mortality rates during 1971–2005, and to estimate the implication in terms of expected deaths. Age-period-cohort models were applied to official statistics. The projected decrease in age-standardised mortality rates for all cancers from 2003 to 2023 was 17% in men and 16% in women. Future mortality rates were projected to decline for ...
Published on Jul 10, 2007in Statistics in Medicine1.85
Bendix Carstensen36
Estimated H-index: 36
(Steno Diabetes Center)
Analysis of rates from disease registers are often reported inadequately because of too coarse tabulation of data and because of confusion about the mechanics of the age–period–cohort model used for analysis. Rates should be considered as observations in a Lexis diagram, and tabulation a necessary reduction of data, which should be as small as possible, and age, period and cohort should be treated as continuous variables. Reporting should include the absolute level of the rates as part of the ag...
Published on May 1, 2007in British Journal of Cancer5.42
Henrik Møller67
Estimated H-index: 67
('KCL': King's College London),
Lesley Fairley18
Estimated H-index: 18
+ 5 AuthorsFreddie Ian Bray81
Estimated H-index: 81
We estimated the future cancer incidence rates and the future numbers of cancer cases in England up to 2020 using cancer registration data for 1974–2003, and the official population projections from ONS up to 2023. Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort model as developed for the Nordic countries. We predict that for all cancers combined there will be relatively little change in age-standardised incidence rates in 2020. The number of new cancer cases per year in England is, however, predi...
Published on Jan 1, 2006in Nature Reviews Cancer51.85
Freddie Ian Bray81
Estimated H-index: 81
,
Bjørn Møller1
Estimated H-index: 1
Predicting cancer occurrence is a difficult task. However, if predictions are accurate, they can be useful to health planners trying to optimize resources, and to assess the impact of planned interventions. How are predictions made and what are the challenges?
Published on Sep 15, 2003in Statistics in Medicine1.85
Bjørn Møller26
Estimated H-index: 26
,
Harald Fekjær2
Estimated H-index: 2
+ 4 AuthorsTor Haldorsen39
Estimated H-index: 39
Prediction of the future number of cancer cases is of great interest to society. The classical approach is to use the age-period-cohort model for making cancer incidence predictions. We made an empirical comparison of different versions of this model, using data from cancer registries in the Nordic countries for the period 1958–1997. We have applied 15 different methods to 20 sites for each sex in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Median absolute value of the relative difference between obser...
Published on Jan 1, 2002in European Journal of Cancer Prevention2.33
Bjørn Møller26
Estimated H-index: 26
,
Harald Fekjær2
Estimated H-index: 2
+ 4 AuthorsTor Haldorsen39
Estimated H-index: 39
Peter Sasieni49
Estimated H-index: 49
,
Joanna Adams9
Estimated H-index: 9
Incidence and mortality rates for invasive cervical cancer in England and Wales have changed considerably since records began in 1950s. It is well known that cervical cancer rates show substantial birth cohort effects and these make the interpretation of secular trends difficult. Here the incidence data (from 1971) and mortality data (from 1950) are analysed by using generalized additive models. The goodness of fit is evaluated by using residual plots and scaled changes in deviance. The incidenc...
Published on Mar 1, 2000in BJUI4.52
David H. Brewster12
Estimated H-index: 12
,
L.A. Fraser2
Estimated H-index: 2
+ 1 AuthorsRoger J. Black9
Estimated H-index: 9
Objective To assess the extent to which the increasing incidence of prostate cancer in Scotland can be explained by increased detection, particularly through transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) and use of the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test. Subjects and methods This population-based study was confined to men resident in Scotland and aged 50 years. Temporal trends were examined in age-specific and age-standardized incidence, mortality and TURP rates, and PSA testing rates during ...
Cited By159
Newest
Published on Mar 18, 2019in BMC Urology1.58
J. Smith-Palmer , C. Takizawa , Wj Valentine28
Estimated H-index: 28
Background Prostate cancer is the most frequently reported cancer in males in Europe, and is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. The aim of the current review was to characterize the clinical, economic and humanistic burden of disease associated with prostate cancer in France, Germany, the UK and Canada.
Published on Mar 15, 2019in BMC Cancer2.93
C. Joachim3
Estimated H-index: 3
,
Jacqueline Veronique-Baudin4
Estimated H-index: 4
+ 7 AuthorsP. Escarmant5
Estimated H-index: 5
Background Cancer indicators are essential information for cancer surveillance and cancer research strategy development. The Martinique Cancer Registry (MCR) is a population-based cancer Registry (PBCR) that has been recording cancer data since its creation in 1981. This article provides cancer incidence and mortality data for all cancers and for major tumor sites.
O.T. Jones (University of Cambridge), L.C. Jurascheck (University of Cambridge)+ 3 AuthorsFiona M Walter33
Estimated H-index: 33
(University of Cambridge)
Published on Apr 1, 2019in Journal of Geriatric Oncology3.16
Se Hyun Kim7
Estimated H-index: 7
(Seoul National University Bundang Hospital),
Jin Won Kim27
Estimated H-index: 27
(Seoul National University Bundang Hospital)
+ 12 AuthorsDer Sheng Sun5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Catholic University of Korea)
Abstract Objectives We aimed to explore serum biomarkers for predicting survival of older patients with metastatic solid tumors who received first line palliative chemotherapy. Materials and Methods Serum samples were prospectively collected before first-line chemotherapy at 11 academic centers in Korea. All patients were participants in a prospective cohort study of older patients with metastatic solid tumors. Serum levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), CXCL10, SIRT1, VEGF-A, activin A, C-termina...
Published on Aug 2, 2019in Independent Nurse
Ian Peate2
Estimated H-index: 2
(Gibraltar Hardware)
Published on Aug 1, 2019in BMJ Open2.38
O.T. Jones (University of Cambridge), L.C. Jurascheck (University of Cambridge)+ 5 AuthorsFiona M Walter33
Estimated H-index: 33
Objective Most skin lesions first present in primary care, where distinguishing rare melanomas from benign lesions can be challenging. Dermoscopy improves diagnostic accuracy among specialists and is promoted for use by primary care physicians (PCPs). However, when used by untrained clinicians, accuracy may be no better than visual inspection. This study aimed to undertake a systematic review of literature reporting use of dermoscopy to triage suspicious skin lesions in primary care settings, an...
Published on Jul 1, 2019in Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews7.75
Jacqueline Dinnes16
Estimated H-index: 16
(University of Birmingham),
Lavinia Ferrante di Ruffano7
Estimated H-index: 7
(University of Birmingham)
+ 15 AuthorsSusan Bayliss30
Estimated H-index: 30
(University of Birmingham)
Published on Jun 1, 2019in Cancer Epidemiology2.62
Zhenqiu Liu3
Estimated H-index: 3
,
Yanfeng Jiang1
Estimated H-index: 1
(Fudan University)
+ 6 AuthorsTiejun Zhang6
Estimated H-index: 6
(Fudan University)
Abstract Aim The age-specific cancer patterns have changed significantly over the last few decades in urban Shanghai. Predicting the cancer incidence in an ageing population can help to anticipate future resource needs, evaluate primary prevention strategies, and inform further research studies. Materials and Methods Annual cancer cases and population data from 1988 to 2013 were collected from Shanghai Cancer Registry. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the future cancer i...
Published on Apr 24, 2018
Mauricio Medina-Rico2
Estimated H-index: 2
(Pontifical Xavierian University),
Manuel Lobo1
Estimated H-index: 1
(Pontifical Xavierian University)
+ 2 AuthorsHugo López-Ramos2
Estimated H-index: 2
(Pontifical Xavierian University)
Introduccion El cancer de vejiga es el noveno cancer mas frecuente para ambos sexos con una incidencia en ascenso. Habiendo una aparente relacion entre el desarrollo de los paises y la epidemiologia del cancer; el objetivo de este articulo es observar la epidemiologia del cancer de vejiga en nuestro medio respecto a otros paises y describir los posibles factores asociados. Metodos Se realizo una revision de la literatura en cuatro bases de datos: Medline, Embase, Cochrane database y Lilacs. Se i...
View next paperPrediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries up to the year 2020.