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Predicting Scholars' Scientific Impact
Abstract
We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of scientists. Our results show that i) among all citation indicators, the annual citations at the time of prediction is the best predictor of future citations, ii) future citations of a scientist's published papers can be predicted accurately ( for a 1-year prediction, ) but iii) future citations of...
Paper Details
Title
Predicting Scholars' Scientific Impact
Published Date
Nov 21, 2012
Journal
Volume
7
Issue
11
Pages
e49246 - e49246
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