Trends in Risks Associated With New Drug Development: Success Rates for Investigational Drugs

This study utilizes both public and private data sources to estimate clinical phase transition and clinical approval probabilities for drugs in the development pipelines of the 50 largest pharmaceutical firms (by sales). The study examined the development histories of these investigational compounds from the time point at which they first entered clinical testing (1993–2004) through June 2009. The clinical approval success rate in the United...