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Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C

Published on Apr 1, 2009in Nature43.07
· DOI :10.1038/nature08017
Malte Meinshausen44
Estimated H-index: 44
(PIK: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research),
Nicolai Meinshausen25
Estimated H-index: 25
(University of Oxford)
+ 5 AuthorsMyles R. Allen64
Estimated H-index: 64
(University of Oxford)
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Abstract
The politically defined threshold of dangerous climate change is an increase of 2 degrees Celsius in the mean global temperature. Simulations here show that when carbon dioxide and a full suite of positive and negative radiative forcings are considered, total emissions from 2000 to 2050 of about 1,400 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide yield a 50% probability of exceeding this threshold by the end of the twenty-first century. 'Business as usual' emissions will probably meet or exceed this 50% probability.
  • References (38)
  • Citations (1363)
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