Disregarding topographical heterogeneity biases species turnover assessments based on bioclimatic models

We investigated whether the inclusion of topographical heterogeneity in bioclimatic envelope models would significantly alter predictions of climate change - induced broad-scale butterfly species range size changes in Europe. Using generalized additive models, and data on current climate and species distributions and two different climate scenarios (HadCM3A2 and HadCM3B2) for the period 2051-2080, we developed predictions of the currently...