Match!

The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes

Published on Nov 1, 2008in Nature Geoscience14.48
· DOI :10.1038/ngeo337
Reto Knutti61
Estimated H-index: 61
 (ETH Zurich), Gabriele C. Hegerl55
Estimated H-index: 55
 (Edin.: University of Edinburgh)
Abstract
The quest to determine climate sensitivity has been going on for decades, with disturbingly little progress in narrowing the large uncertainty range. But fascinating new insights have been gained that will provide useful information for policy makers, even though the upper limit of climate sensitivity will probably remain uncertain for the near future.
  • References (103)
  • Citations (394)
📖 Papers frequently viewed together
20044.58Geophysical Research Letters
9 Authors (Jonathan M. Gregory, ..., Keith D. Williams)
452 Citations
200943.07Nature
8 Authors (Malte Meinshausen, ..., Myles R. Allen)
1,363 Citations
200243.07Nature
4 Authors (Reto Knutti, ..., Gian-Kasper Plattner)
324 Citations
78% of Scinapse members use related papers. After signing in, all features are FREE.
References103
Newest
#1Gerald R. North (UMSL: University of Missouri–St. Louis)H-Index: 40
#2Robert F. Cahalan (NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 31
Last. James A. Coakley (NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 3
view all 3 authors...
An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved, and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear s...
384 Citations
With climate change as prototype example, this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of low-probability, high-impact catastrophes. Even when updated by Bayesian learning, uncertain structural parameters induce a critical "tail fattening" of posterior-predictive distributions. Such fattened tails have strong implications for situations, like climate change, where a catastrophe is theoretically possible because prior knowledge cannot place sufficiently narrow ...
996 CitationsSource
Sep 10, 2008·Geophysical Research Letters4.58
#1Didier Swingedouw (UCL: Université catholique de Louvain)H-Index: 28
#2Thierry Fichefet (UCL: Université catholique de Louvain)H-Index: 48
Last. Marie-France Loutre (UCL: Université catholique de Louvain)H-Index: 45
view all 6 authors...
We show by using a three-dimensional climate model, which includes a comprehensive representation of polar ice sheets, that on centennial to millennial time scales Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) can melt and moderate warming in the Southern Hemisphere, by up to 10 degrees C regionally, in a 4 x CO2 scenario. This behaviour stems from the formation of a cold halocline in the Southern Ocean, which limits sea-ice cover retreat under global warming and increases surface albedo, reducing local surface war...
59 CitationsSource
Aug 2, 2008·Journal of Geophysical Research
#1Grant FosterH-Index: 1
#2James D. Annan (JAMSTEC: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)H-Index: 26
Last. Michael E. Mann (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 69
view all 4 authors...
[1] In a recent paper, Schwartz [2007] (hereinafter referred to as S07) estimated climate sensitivity using globally averaged observed time series. He estimated the planet’s effective heat capacity and ‘‘pertinent time constant’’ from ocean heat content and observed global temperature records, assuming that the latter can be modeled as a firstorder Markov (AR(1)) process after removing the trend due to climate forcing by subtracting a linear trend. [2] As S07 correctly states, the autocorrelatio...
19 CitationsSource
Aug 2, 2008·Journal of Geophysical Research
#1Reto Knutti (ETH Zurich)H-Index: 61
#2Stefan Krähenmann (ETH Zurich)H-Index: 1
Last. Myles R. Allen (University of Oxford)H-Index: 64
view all 4 authors...
37 CitationsSource
Jun 1, 2008·Nature43.07
#1Catia M. Domingues (O&A: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 19
#2John A. Church (O&A: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 56
Last. Jeff R. Dunn (O&A: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 4
view all 7 authors...
This paper reports improved estimates of near-global ocean heat content and thermal expansion for the upper ocean from 1950–2003, applying corrections to reduce systematic biases in the most common ocean temperature observations. The ocean warming and thermal expansion trends for 1961–2003 are about 50 per cent larger than earlier estimates but about 40 per cent smaller for 1993–2003, consistent with the recognition that previously estimated rates for the 1990s were biased by instrumental errors...
545 CitationsSource
Jun 1, 2008·Journal of Climate4.80
#1Gian-Kasper PlattnerH-Index: 46
#2Reto KnuttiH-Index: 61
Last. Andrew J. Weaver (UVic: University of Victoria)H-Index: 63
view all 23 authors...
Eight earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) are used to project climate change commitments for the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Simulations are run until the year 3000 A.D. and extend substantially farther into the future than conceptually similar simulations with atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) coupled to carbon cycle models. In this paper the following are investigated: 1) the climate change co...
188 CitationsSource
Jun 1, 2008·Journal of Climate4.80
#1Reto Knutti (NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 61
#2Myles R. AllenH-Index: 64
Last. Tom M. L. Wigley (NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 83
view all 13 authors...
Quantification of the uncertainties in future climate projections is crucial for the implementation of climate policies. Here a review of projections of global temperature change over the twenty-first century is provided for the six illustrative emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) that assume no policy intervention, based on the latest generation of coupled general circulation models, climate models of intermediate complexity, and simple models, and uncertain...
169 CitationsSource
May 3, 2008·Geophysical Research Letters4.58
#1Reto Knutti (ETH Zurich)H-Index: 61
#2Lorenzo Tomassini (MPG: Max Planck Society)H-Index: 15
[1] Projections of future transient global temperature increase in climate models for a known forcing depend on the strength of the atmospheric feedbacks and the rate of transient ocean heat uptake. A Bayesian framework and an intermediate complexity climate model are used to calculate a probability density function (PDF) of the transient climate response (TCR), constrained by observations of global surface warming and ocean heat uptake. The PDF constrained by observations is wider than the TCR ...
48 CitationsSource
Coupled climate models are sophisticated tools designed to simulate the Earth climate system and the complex interactions between its components. Currently, more than a dozen centers around the world develop climate models to enhance our understanding of climate and climate change and to support the activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, climate models are not perfect. Our theoretical understanding of climate is still incomplete, and certain simplifying assu...
623 CitationsSource
Cited By394
Newest
Apr 9, 2020·arXiv: Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
#1David R. Vivas
#2Estiven Sánchez
Last. John H. Reina (University of Valle)H-Index: 11
view all 3 authors...
A question of global concern regarding the sustainable future of humankind stems from the effect due to aerosols on the global climate. The quantification of atmospheric aerosols and their relationship to climatic impacts are key to understanding the dynamics of climate forcing and to improve our knowledge about climate change. Due to its response to precipitation, temperature, topography and human activity, one of the most dynamical atmospheric regions is the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL): A...
Mar 12, 2020·Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics5.67
#1D. M. Westervelt (GISS: Goddard Institute for Space Studies)H-Index: 11
#2Nora Rose Mascioli (UCSD: University of California, San Diego)H-Index: 2
Last. Larry W. Horowitz (NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)H-Index: 75
view all 10 authors...
Abstract. The climatic implications of regional aerosol and precursor emissions reductions implemented to protect human health are poorly understood. We investigate the mean and extreme temperature response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry-climate models: NOAA GFDL-CM3, NCAR-CESM1, and NASA GISS-E2. Our approach contrasts a long present-day control simulation from each model (up to 400 years with perpetual year 2000 or 2005 emissions) with fourteen individua...
Source
Source
Jan 1, 2020·Environmental and Resource Economics
#1Samuel Jovan Okullo (PIK: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
This article quantifies the impact on optimal climate policy, of both damage elasticity and equilibrium climate sensitivity uncertainty, under separable preferences for risk and intergenerational inequality. The primary findings are as follows. (1) Such preferences can depress the social cost of carbon (SCC) when calibration aims at matching actual economic outcomes, countering the prevailing view that the SCC is greater with separable than with conventional entangled preferences. (2) Damage ela...
1 CitationsSource
Nov 13, 2019·Journal of Statistical Physics1.51
#1Peter Ashwin (University of Exeter)H-Index: 34
#2Anna von der Heydt (UU: Utrecht University)H-Index: 19
A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized (‘instantaneous’) with fully nonlinear geometric (‘two-point’) notions of ECS, in both presence and absence of tipping points. For a stochastic energy balance model of the global mean surface temperature with two stable regimes, we confirm that tipping events cause the appea...
2 CitationsSource
Nov 11, 2019·Environmental Research Letters6.19
#1Hossein Tabari (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)H-Index: 31
#2Parisa Hosseinzadehtalaei (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)H-Index: 6
Last. Patrick Willems (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)H-Index: 47
view all 4 authors...
Projected precipitation from climate models is used in a wide range of fields for climate change impact assessment. However, the spatial pattern of uncertainty across latitudes and the global uncertainty hotspots are not well understood despite their importance for regional adaptation planning. In this study, we describe uncertainties in projected extreme precipitation changes per K global warming across latitudes, and decompose the overall uncertainty into climate model and internal variability...
4 CitationsSource
Sep 6, 2019·Frontiers in Earth Science2.89
#1Patrick Frank (SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory)
The reliability of general circulation climate model (GCM) global air temperature projections is evaluated for the first time, by way of propagation of model calibration error. An extensive series of demonstrations show that GCM air temperature projections are just linear extrapolations of fractional greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Linear projections are subject to linear propagation of error. A directly relevant GCM calibration metric is the annual average 12.1% error in long-wave cloud forcing ...
Source
Jul 10, 2019·Earth System Dynamics Discussions4.35
#1Christoph Heinze (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)H-Index: 31
#2Veronika Eyring (University of Bremen)H-Index: 50
Last. Martin Vancoppenolle (University of Paris)H-Index: 22
view all 20 authors...
Earth system models (ESMs) are key tools for providing climate projections under different scenarios of human-induced forcing. ESMs include a large number of additional processes and feedbacks such as biogeochemical cycles that traditional physical climate models do not consider. Yet, some processes such as cloud dynamics and ecosystem functional response still have fairly high uncertainties. In this article, we present an overview of climate feedbacks for Earth system components currently inclu...
Source
Jul 1, 2019·Science Advances12.80
#1Nathan J. Steiger (LDEO: Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory)H-Index: 8
#2Jason E. Smerdon (LDEO: Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory)H-Index: 32
Last. Edward R. Cook (LDEO: Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory)H-Index: 81
view all 6 authors...
Multidecadal “megadroughts” were a notable feature of the climate of the American Southwest over the Common era, yet we still lack a comprehensive theory for what caused these megadroughts and why they curiously only occurred before about 1600 CE. Here, we use the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product, in conjunction with radiative forcing estimates, to demonstrate that megadroughts in the American Southwest were driven by unusually frequent and cold central tropical Pacific sea surface ...
2 CitationsSource
Source