The distribution of inflation forecast errors

Published: Jan 1, 2015
Abstract
This paper investigates the cross-sectional distribution of inflation forecasts errors over the period 1984–2007. Our working hypothesis is that the Fed's movement toward greater transparency starting in the mid-1990s likely affected both the distribution of forecast errors and the location of the Fed's staff forecasts within that distribution. This paper builds on earlier work which compared Fed forecasts to the mean or median of private sector...
Paper Details
Title
The distribution of inflation forecast errors
Published Date
Jan 1, 2015
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