Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs: Coordination, Public Signals and Punishment Dilemmas

We provide a framework for analyzing collective action in contentious contexts such as protests or revolutions when individuals are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution. We model the calculus of null of individuals who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or revolt based on personal information about their payo ffs. When deciding whether to revolt, a citizen must infer both the value of successful...