An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

Published on Apr 1, 2012in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society8.166
· DOI :10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Karl E. Taylor57
Estimated H-index: 57
Ronald J. Stouffer72
Estimated H-index: 72
Gerald A. Meehl94
Estimated H-index: 94
The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades...
Figures & Tables
  • References (14)
  • Citations (6923)
📖 Papers frequently viewed together
2,806 Citations
715 Citations
2,822 Citations
78% of Scinapse members use related papers. After signing in, all features are FREE.
Errors in the simulation of clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) remain a long-standing issue in climate projections, as discussed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. This highlights the need for developing new analysis techniques to improve our knowledge of the physical processes at the root of these errors. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) pursues this objective, and under that framework the CFMIP Observation Simulato...
291 CitationsSource
#1Benjamin S. Kravitz (RU: Rutgers University)H-Index: 28
#2Alan Robock (RU: Rutgers University)H-Index: 78
Last. Michael SchulzH-Index: 75
view all 7 authors...
To evaluate the effects of stratospheric geoengineering with sulphate aerosols, we propose standard forcing scenarios to be applied to multiple climate models to compare their results and determine the robustness of their responses. Thus far, different modeling groups have used different forcing scenarios for both global warming and geoengineering, complicating the comparison of results. We recommend four experiments to explore the extent to which geoengineering might offset climate change proje...
231 CitationsSource
#1Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 82
#2Tami C. Bond (UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign)H-Index: 49
Last. Detlef P. van Vuuren (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)H-Index: 79
view all 22 authors...
We present and discuss a new dataset of gridded emissions covering the historical period (1850–2000) in decadal increments at a horizontal resolution of 0.5° in latitude and longitude. The primary purpose of this inventory is to provide consistent gridded emissions of reactive gases and aerosols for use in chemistry model simulations needed by climate models for the Climate Model Intercomparison Program #5 (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessmen...
1,337 CitationsSource
#1Richard H. Moss (Joint Global Change Research Institute)H-Index: 22
#2Jae Edmonds (Joint Global Change Research Institute)H-Index: 50
Last. Thomas J. Wilbanks (ORNL: Oak Ridge National Laboratory)H-Index: 23
view all 19 authors...
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in fut...
3,307 CitationsSource
#1Gerald A. Meehl (NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 94
#2Lisa M. Goddard (IRI)H-Index: 32
Last. Timothy N. Stockdale (ECMWF: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)H-Index: 32
view all 20 authors...
A new field of study, "decadal prediction," is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10-30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to ada...
476 CitationsSource
#1Jonathan M. Gregory (University of Reading)H-Index: 76
#2Mark J. WebbH-Index: 39
Abstract The radiative forcing of CO2 and the climate feedback parameter are evaluated in several climate models with slab oceans by regressing the annual-mean global-mean top-of-atmosphere radiative flux against the annual-mean global-mean surface air temperature change ΔT following a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration. The method indicates that in many models there is a significant rapid tropospheric adjustment to CO2 leading to changes in cloud, and reducing the effective radiative for...
244 CitationsSource
#1Gerald A. Meehl (NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 94
#2Curt CoveyH-Index: 21
Last. Karl E. TaylorH-Index: 57
view all 8 authors...
A coordinated set of global coupled climate model [atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM)] experiments for twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate, as well as several climate change commitment and other experiments, was run by 16 modeling groups from 11 countries with 23 models for assessment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Since the assessment was completed, output from another model has been added to the dataset, so the pa...
2,262 CitationsSource
#1Kathy A. Hibbard (NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 16
#2Gerald A. Meehl (NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 94
Last. Pierre FriedlingsteinH-Index: 88
view all 4 authors...
Climate models used for climate change projections are on the threshold of including much greater biological and chemical detail than previous models. Today, standard climate models (referred to generically as atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, or AOGCMs) include components that simulate the coupled atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice. Some modeling centers are now incorporating carbon cycle models into AOGCMs in a move toward an Earth system model (ESM) capability. Additional candida...
99 CitationsSource
#1Pierre Friedlingstein (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives)H-Index: 88
#2Peter M. CoxH-Index: 71
Last. Ning ZengH-Index: 50
view all 29 authors...
Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to isolate the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the cli...
2,162 CitationsSource
#1Vladimir Petoukhov (PIK: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)H-Index: 28
#2Martin Claussen (PIK: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)H-Index: 54
Last. Andrew J. Weaver (UVic: University of Victoria)H-Index: 63
view all 17 authors...
An intercomparison of eight EMICs (Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity) is carried out to investigate the variation and scatter in the results of simulating (1) the climate characteristics at the prescribed 280 ppm atmosphere CO2 concentration, and (2) the equilibrium and transient responses to CO2 doubling in the atmosphere. The results of the first part of this intercomparison suggest that EMICs are in reasonable agreement with the present-day observational data. The dispersion of t...
102 CitationsSource
Cited By6923
#1Dengpan XiaoH-Index: 1
#2De Li Liu (UNSW: University of New South Wales)H-Index: 10
view all 6 authors...
Abstract Climate change has already and will continue to exert a vital impact on crop yield and water use in the North China Plain (NCP). Currently, this plain is facing a dilemma between groundwater depletion and grain production demand. It is urgent to identify the impact of future climate change on crop yield and water consumption and then develop efficient adaptation strategies in the region. In this study, we used statistically downscaled daily climate data from 33 global climate models (GC...
#1Jianfeng Li (Hong Kong Baptist University)H-Index: 21
#2Thian Yew Gan (Hong Kong Baptist University)H-Index: 27
Last. Yangchen Lai (Hong Kong Baptist University)
view all 7 authors...
Abstract The resolution mismatch between GCMs and in-situ gauge observations is an issue that has to be addressed for assessments and projections of precipitation extremes. The impacts of using different strategies to address this issue on GCM assessments and projections are evaluated in this study. The differences of precipitation extremes derived from GCMs at the original gridded resolutions and site-scale observations can be mostly explained by resolution mismatch. As the spatial and temporal...
#1Mansour Almazroui (KAU: King Abdulaziz University)H-Index: 18
#2M. Salman Khalid (KAU: King Abdulaziz University)H-Index: 1
Last. Sajjad Saeed (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)H-Index: 9
view all 4 authors...
Abstract This study explores the seasonal to inter-seasonal and regional changes in temperature (and related uncertainties) over the Arabian Peninsula, by using the multi-model ensemble from the Couple Models Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The seasonal temperature changes are examined for three future periods (2030–2039; 2060–2069 and 2090–2099) with reference to the present climate (1971–2000). The 22-m...
#2M. C. Sousa (University of Aveiro)H-Index: 9
Last. J. Dias
view all 4 authors...
Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) has important local and remote influence on global climate through the distribution and transport of heat and moisture, which in turn affect precipitation and air temperature patterns across the globe. Thus, this work aims to assess the worldwide regionalization of the SST evolution for the 21st century under the influence of climate change by means of: 1) division of the worldwide SST data in regions applying a K-means cluster procedure and validation of t...
Abstract Changing climate creates energy demand uncertainty that is essential for facility and organizational management. Energy conservation can be achieved through combinations of capital improvements and/or management strategies. One such management strategy is implementation of non-conditioning zones to reduce temperate season energy demand. In this study, we evaluate a temporally-based, non-conditioning zone policy originally developed for Kunsan Air Force Base, Korea and apply it to six lo...
#1M.N. Lorenzo (University of Vigo)
#2Ines Alvarez (University of Vigo)H-Index: 24
Abstract This work presents an analysis of the climate change scenarios in some extreme precipitation indices over Spain using simulations from the EURO-CORDEX project. Change projections of precipitation are evaluated for the near future (2021–2050) relatively to a reference past climate (1971–2000). Projections of annual precipitation show a general decrease in almost the whole region except over the central area where positive changes are detected due to a significant increase in winter. For ...
#1Luke E. MadausH-Index: 4
#1Luke MadausH-Index: 1
view all 4 authors...
Abstract This paper describes a scalable system for quantifying hyper-local heat stress in urban environments and its expected response within the changing climate. A hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling approach links Global Climate Models (GCMs) with dynamically downscaled extreme heat events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Downscaled historical simulations in WRF incorporate urban canopy physics to better describe localized land surface details in the urban environ...
#1Sadhan Malik (B. U.: University of Burdwan)H-Index: 2
#2Subodh Chandra Pal (B. U.: University of Burdwan)H-Index: 3
Last. Pir Mohammad (IITR: Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee)H-Index: 1
view all 7 authors...
Abstract Kolkata Metropolitan Area (KMA) is one of the most densely populated areas in the world, where extreme precipitation events result in frequent waterlogging and flood inundation conditions which can adversely affect the city. In this study, we evaluate the nature and trend of annual-maximum precipitation events by employing suitable Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The trend of observed annual maximum daily rainfall from 1901 to 2013 has been analysed through linear regression, recurren...
#1Dimitri Defrance (University of Montpellier)H-Index: 1
#2Thibault CatryH-Index: 5
Last. Benjamin SultanH-Index: 29
view all 5 authors...
Abstract Climate change studies in recent decades have been based on Global Climate Models (GCMs), and the changes in the distribution of climatic regions over time extracted from these models can be represented using the Koppen climatic classification system, which predicts the global distribution of biomes based on monthly precipitation and average temperatures. In this study, the Koppen classification is used to evaluate the impacts of the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets on ...
#1Chirag Dhara (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)
Changes in the atmospheric composition alter the magnitude and partitioning between the downward propagating solar and atmospheric longwave radiative fluxes heating the Earth's surface. These changes are computed by radiative transfer codes in Global Climate Models, and measured with high precision at surface observation networks. Changes in radiative heating signify changes in the global surface temperature and hydrologic cycle. Here, we develop a conceptual framework using an Energy Balance Mo...