Econometric GNP forecasts: Incremental information relative to naive extrapolation

Recent studies of macroeconomic forecasts have focused primarily on the relative performance of individual forecasts and combinations thereof. We suggest that these forecasts be evaluated in terms of the incremental information that they provide relative to a simple extrapolation forecast. Using a Bayesian approach, we measure the incremental information contained in econometric forecasts of U.S. GNP relative to a random-walk-with-drift time...