Match!

Projections of cancer prevalence in the United Kingdom, 2010-2040.

Published on Sep 1, 2012in British Journal of Cancer5.42
· DOI :10.1038/bjc.2012.366
Jacob Maddams4
Estimated H-index: 4
,
Martin Utley26
Estimated H-index: 26
(UCL: University College London),
Henrik Møller67
Estimated H-index: 67
Cite
Abstract
BACKGROUND There are currently two million cancer survivors in the United Kingdom, and in recent years this number has grown by 3% per annum. The aim of this paper is to provide long-term projections of cancer prevalence in the United Kingdom. METHODS National cancer registry data for England were used to estimate cancer prevalence in the United Kingdom in 2009. Using a model of prevalence as a function of incidence, survival and population demographics, projections were made to 2040. Different scenarios of future incidence and survival, and their effects on cancer prevalence, were also considered. Colorectal, lung, prostate, female breast and all cancers combined (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) were analysed separately. RESULTS Assuming that existing trends in incidence and survival continue, the number of cancer survivors in the United Kingdom is projected to increase by approximately one million per decade from 2010 to 2040. Particularly large increases are anticipated in the oldest age groups, and in the number of long-term survivors. By 2040, almost a quarter of people aged at least 65 will be cancer survivors. CONCLUSION Increasing cancer survival and the growing/ageing population of the United Kingdom mean that the population of survivors is likely to grow substantially in the coming decades, as are the related demands upon the health service. Plans must, therefore, be laid to ensure that the varied needs of cancer survivors can be met in the future.
  • References (15)
  • Citations (177)
Cite
References15
Newest
Published on Nov 1, 2011in British Journal of Cancer5.42
M Mistry1
Estimated H-index: 1
,
D M Parkin1
Estimated H-index: 1
+ 1 AuthorsPeter Sasieni49
Estimated H-index: 49
Quantifying the future burden of cancer incidence and mortality, in terms of expected numbers of cases and deaths, or rates of disease, is important in optimising the allocation of resources for screening, diagnostic, therapeutic and palliative services and to provide a baseline from which the success of future interventions can be judged (Bray and Moller, 2006). The future number of cases (or deaths) is a consequence of two components of change; the evolution of the size and age structure of th...
Published on Nov 1, 2011in British Journal of Cancer5.42
M Richards6
Estimated H-index: 6
,
Jessica Corner18
Estimated H-index: 18
(University of Southampton),
J Maher1
Estimated H-index: 1
(Macmillan Cancer Support)
The National Cancer Survivorship Initiative: new and emerging evidence on the ongoing needs of cancer survivors
Published on Nov 1, 2011in British Journal of Cancer5.42
Jacob Maddams4
Estimated H-index: 4
,
Martin Utley26
Estimated H-index: 26
,
Henrik Møller67
Estimated H-index: 67
Cancer survivors are defined as people who are alive following a diagnosis of cancer from some point in their past. In UK, there are approximately 2 million cancer survivors (approximately 1.66 million of these in England), and this number is increasing by 3% per year (Maddams et al, 2009). The size and demographics of the population of cancer survivors has been described, but there is still a need for more detailed analyses of the burden of cancer on the individual and on health-service resourc...
Published on Sep 1, 2011in Health Care Management Science2.06
Francesca Fiorentino17
Estimated H-index: 17
(UCL: University College London),
Jacob Maddams4
Estimated H-index: 4
('KCL': King's College London)
+ 1 AuthorsMartin Utley26
Estimated H-index: 26
(UCL: University College London)
Recent estimates suggest that there are 2 million people in the UK living with or beyond a diagnosis of cancer and there is increasing attention being given to assessing the health and social care needs of this growing population. A simple analytical model has been constructed to estimate future trends in cancer prevalence, using existing prevalence estimates and trends in cancer incidence and survival. Separate estimates are generated for the contribution to future prevalence due to the current...
Published on Sep 1, 2011in European Journal of Cancer6.68
Jacob Maddams4
Estimated H-index: 4
('KCL': King's College London),
Martin Utley26
Estimated H-index: 26
(UCL: University College London),
Henrik Møller67
Estimated H-index: 67
('KCL': King's College London)
Abstract Background In the United Kingdom, there are approximately two million cancer survivors (3.2% of the entire population), composed of groups of people in different phases of survivorship and with different health service needs. The aim of this study was to quantify the level of acute health service utilisation by cancer survivors in the UK, according to tumour type, age, sex, time since diagnosis, and time until death. Methods Linked national cancer registry and hospital activity data wer...
Published on Jul 1, 2011in European Journal of Cancer Prevention2.33
Piers A.C. Gatenby13
Estimated H-index: 13
,
A Hainsworth2
Estimated H-index: 2
+ 2 AuthorsMarc C. Winslet25
Estimated H-index: 25
The United Kingdom has the highest age-standardized incidence of oesophageal cancer in Europe. This study projects the number of cases of oesophageal cancer arising in England over a 25-year period. Data from National Statistics were used to determine the number and incidence of oesophageal cancers diagnosed during 2001-2007 (separated by age and sex). These data were used with population projections to model the number of cancers that would develop in the future. Variant estimates were undertak...
Published on Aug 1, 2009in British Journal of Cancer5.42
Jacob Maddams4
Estimated H-index: 4
,
David C. Brewster67
Estimated H-index: 67
+ 4 AuthorsHenrik Møller67
Estimated H-index: 67
BACKGROUND: Identifying and addressing the requirements of cancer survivors is currently a high priority for the NHS, yet little is known about the population of cancer survivors in the United Kingdom. METHODS: Data from cancer registries in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales were analysed to provide limited-duration prevalence estimates for 2004. Log-linear regression models were used to extend these to complete prevalence estimates. Trends in prevalence from 2000 to 2004 were used t...
Published on Feb 1, 2008in Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology2.18
Nana Tabata1
Estimated H-index: 1
(Osaka University),
Yuko Ohno18
Estimated H-index: 18
(Osaka University)
+ 4 AuthorsAkira Oshima9
Estimated H-index: 9
Measuring cancer prevalence in Japan has been difficult because population-based cancer registries have been conducted in limited areas. The purpose of this study was to estimate cancer prevalence in Japan from 1995 to 2020 for 5-year periods based on selected population-based cancer registry data. 1-, 2‐3-, 4‐5- and 5-year partial prevalence were estimated using incidence and survival data. Incidence and survival were calculated using data from selected cancer registries. We estimated the cance...
Published on Sep 15, 2006in Statistics in Medicine1.85
Sirpa Heinävaara14
Estimated H-index: 14
(UH: University of Helsinki),
Timo Hakulinen62
Estimated H-index: 62
Incidence, survival, prevalence and mortality are the elements of the cancer burden. The cancer burden is thus contributed by the same individuals from the diagnosis of cancer (incidence) until possible death from cancer (mortality). It would therefore be natural that predictions of future cancer burden, those needed by health administration, for example, could be based on individual data. This paper presents a new model for estimating future cancer burden, a model where individuals are followed...
Cited By177
Newest
Published on 2019in Trials1.98
Victoria Shepherd5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Cardiff University),
Fiona Wood26
Estimated H-index: 26
(Cardiff University)
+ 2 AuthorsKerenza Hood46
Estimated H-index: 46
(Cardiff University)
Around two million adults in the UK have significantly impaired decision-making capacity. However, there are concerns that this population is under-represented in research, due in part to the challenges around obtaining consent. Under-representation of populations denies those who would have wanted to participate the opportunity to make a contribution to society, but also fails to generate results that are applicable to them. Consequently, the evidence base for their care is poorer than for othe...
Published on Dec 1, 2019in BMC Cancer2.93
Jane Frankland9
Estimated H-index: 9
(RMIT: RMIT University),
Hazel Brodie1
Estimated H-index: 1
(RMIT: RMIT University)
+ 7 AuthorsAlison Richardson45
Estimated H-index: 45
(University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust)
Background Alternative models of cancer follow-up care are needed to ameliorate pressure on services and better meet survivors’ long-term needs. This paper reports an evaluation of a service improvement initiative for the follow-up care of prostate cancer patients based on remote monitoring and supported self-management.
Published on Feb 12, 2019in BMC Health Services Research1.93
Amy L. Clarke5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Warw.: University of Warwick),
Amy L. Clarke (Warw.: University of Warwick)+ 2 AuthorsVeronica Nanton8
Estimated H-index: 8
(Warw.: University of Warwick)
Men surviving prostate cancer report a wide range of unmet needs. Holistic needs assessments (HNA) are designed to capture these, but are traditionally paper-based, generic, and only carried out in secondary care despite national initiatives advocating a “shared care” approach. We developed an online prostate cancer-specific HNA (sHNA) built into existing IT healthcare infrastructure to provide a platform for service integration. Barriers and facilitators to implementation and use of the sHNA we...
Published on Jul 25, 2019in BMC Public Health2.57
Sidra Zaheer4
Estimated H-index: 4
(DUHS: Dow University of Health Sciences),
Nadia Shah1
Estimated H-index: 1
(DUHS: Dow University of Health Sciences)
+ 1 AuthorsNoor Muhammad Soomro (Civil Hospital Karachi)
The current demographic trends indicate that breast cancer will pose an even greater public health concern in future for Pakistan. Details on the incidence, disease severity and mortality in respect of breast cancer are limited and without such data, therefore, future health policies or systems in respect of this disease cannot be strategically planned or implemented. The aim of this study was to examine past trends of age-specific breast cancer incidence rates (2004–2015), and to estimate the f...
Published on Jul 1, 2019in Critical Reviews in Oncology Hematology5.01
Ian Banks6
Estimated H-index: 6
(European CanCer Organisation),
David Weller52
Estimated H-index: 52
(Edin.: University of Edinburgh)
+ 16 AuthorsCsaba Dégi
Abstract Background ECCO Essential Requirements for Quality Cancer Care (ERQCC) are checklists and explanations of organisation and actions that are necessary to give high-quality care to cancer patients. They are written by European experts representing all disciplines involved in cancer care. This paper concerns the integration of primary care into care for all cancers in Europe. Primary care integration • Primary care professionals play major roles in the diagnosis of cancer and care of cance...
Published on Sep 11, 2019in Journal of Cancer Survivorship3.58
Samantha C. Sodergren12
Estimated H-index: 12
(RMIT: RMIT University),
S. J. Wheelwright (RMIT: RMIT University)+ 9 AuthorsJ. Winter (RMIT: RMIT University)
Purpose To investigate unmet needs of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) at the end of treatment and whether unmet needs improve over time. Identify predictors of need following treatment and whether unmet need is associated with worse health-related quality of life (HRQoL).
Published on Sep 11, 2019in Journal of Medical Genetics5.90
Jennifer Wiggins , Anne McLoughlin1
Estimated H-index: 1
+ 2 AuthorsZoe Kemp1
Estimated H-index: 1
Background For patients with early breast cancer, knowledge of germline BRCA1/2 status increasingly influences management as well as informing future cancer risk for patients and their families. As access to germline testing expands, it is important that this benefit is extended to survivors as well as to the newly diagnosed. Methods In collaboration with our breast unit colleagues and by embedding a Senior Genetic Counsellor in the virtual multidisciplinary meeting, we identified patients suita...
Published on Sep 2, 2019in Journal of Cancer Survivorship3.58
Anna L. Roberts2
Estimated H-index: 2
,
Henry W. W. Potts16
Estimated H-index: 16
+ 3 AuthorsAbi Fisher22
Estimated H-index: 22
Purpose The purpose of this study was to understand breast, prostate and colorectal cancer clinical nurse specialists’ (CNSs) perspectives on physical activity (PA) promotion and the role of smartphone apps to support PA promotion in cancer care.
Published on Jul 1, 2019in European Journal of Integrative Medicine0.95
Barbara S. Baker3
Estimated H-index: 3
(Breast Cancer Haven),
Caroline J. Hoffman4
Estimated H-index: 4
(Breast Cancer Haven),
Deborah Fenlon17
Estimated H-index: 17
(Swansea University)
Abstract Introduction Breast Cancer Haven (BCH) is a national UK breast cancer charity supporting people through the physical and emotional experience of breast cancer. This service evaluation aimed to identify what people expected/ hoped for from BCH, and to evaluate how well those expectations were met. Methods A link to an on-line SurveyMonkey survey was emailed out during November 2014 - January 2015 to 4,804 people with breast cancer who had attended BCH centres in London, Yorkshire or Here...
View next paperCancer prevalence in the United Kingdom: estimates for 2008