Match!

High-resolution operational monsoon forecasts: an objective assessment

Published on Jun 1, 2015in Climate Dynamics4.048
· DOI :10.1007/s00382-014-2210-9
A. K. Sahai19
Estimated H-index: 19
(IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology),
S. Abhilash11
Estimated H-index: 11
(IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)
+ 4 AuthorsM. Rajeevan33
Estimated H-index: 33
(Government of India)
Abstract
Optimization of computational efficiency is indispensable in the incorporation of numerical complexity in a pragmatic climate forecast system. From the resource optimization standpoint, the debate regarding, to what extent increased computing efficiency and expense on resources has reduced the signal-to-noise ratio and improved our understanding towards future climate states on different time scales, still continues. With the recent advancement of real time climate forecasts from different operational agencies with increased computational efficiencies and resources, it has become necessary to perform an objective evaluation of the high resolution operational monsoon forecasts to conform if the high resolution outlooks are skillful enough as compared to a low resolution version. In this paper, we have performed a quantitative comparison of the extended range (~2–3 weeks) forecasts of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) obtained from the climate forecast system model version 2 developed at National Centre for Environmental Prediction USA at two different resolutions: T126 (~100 km) and T382 (~38 km). It is observed that, higher model resolution (T382) has provided better basic state for MISO along with large reduction in climatological biases in June–September precipitation than the lower resolution forecast (T126). However, compared to the computing resources, there is no significant improvement in the prediction skill from increased horizontal resolution.
  • References (57)
  • Citations (18)
📖 Papers frequently viewed together
1,004 Citations
41 Citations
55 Citations
78% of Scinapse members use related papers. After signing in, all features are FREE.
References57
Newest
#1Suranjana Saha (NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)H-Index: 21
#2Shrinivas MoorthiH-Index: 14
Last. Emily BeckerH-Index: 13
view all 19 authors...
AbstractThe second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled reanalysis was made over a 32-yr period (1979–2010), which provided the initial conditions to carry out a comprehensive reforecast over 29 years (1982–2010). This was done to obtain consistent and stable calibrations, as well as skill estimates for the oper...
1,004 CitationsSource
#1S. Abhilash (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 11
#2A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
Last. Arun KumarH-Index: 57
view all 5 authors...
This study analyses skill of an extended range prediction system to forecast Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) 3-4 pentads in advance. A series of 45-d forecast integrations starting from 1 May to 29 September at 5-d interval for 7 years from 2001 to 2007 are performed with an ensemble prediction system (EPS) in NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 1 (CFSV1) model. The sensitivity experiments with different amount of perturbation suggest that full tendency perturbation experiment on all basi...
41 CitationsSource
#1K. P. Sooraj (PNU: Pusan National University)H-Index: 1
#2Kyong-Hwan Seo (PNU: Pusan National University)H-Index: 21
The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) with the relaxed Arakawa Schubert (RAS, hereafter referred to as CTRL) convection scheme of Moorthi and Suarez exhibits better performance in representing boreal summer tropical intraseasonal variability as compared with a simulation using simplified Arakawa–Schubert scheme. The intraseasonal moist static energy (MSE) budget is analyzed in this version of the CFS model (CTRL), which produces realistic eastward and northward propagation characteristics. The ...
4 CitationsSource
#1S. Abhilash (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 11
#2A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
Last. S. De (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 7
view all 4 authors...
This study examines the phase dependant temporal and spatial error evolution and prediction of active break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in an ensemble prediction system (EPS) on a pentad time scale using climate forecast system (CFS). The EPS system shows systematic wet bias (overestimation) over west coast over the Arabian Sea and Myanmar coast and dry bias (underestimation) over Indian land mass even at pentad 1 lead and these biases consistently increase up to 4 pentad lead and s...
7 CitationsSource
#1S. Sharmila (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 10
#2Prasanth A. Pillai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 9
Last. Bhupendra Nath Goswami (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 46
view all 9 authors...
Atmospheric dynamical mechanisms have been prevalently used to explain the characteristics of the sum- mer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO), which dictates the wet and dry spells of the monsoon rainfall. Recent studies show that ocean-atmosphere coupling has a vital role in simulating the observed amplitude and rela- tionship between precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) at the intraseasonal scale. However it is not clear whether this role is simply 'passive' response to the at...
55 CitationsSource
#1Mathew Koll Roxy (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 14
#2Youichi Tanimoto (Hokkaido University)H-Index: 26
Last. R. Krishnan (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 21
view all 5 authors...
The SST-precipitation relationship in the intraseasonal variability (ISV) over the Asian monsoon region is examined using recent high quality satellite data and simulations from a state of the art coupled model, the climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2). CFSv2 demonstrates high skill in reproducing the spatial distribution of the observed climatological mean summer monsoon precipitation along with its interannual variability, a task which has been a conundrum for many recent climate coupled ...
67 CitationsSource
#1E. Suhas (UCSD: University of California, San Diego)H-Index: 1
#2J. M. Neena (UCLA: University of California, Los Angeles)H-Index: 1
Last. Bhupendra Nath Goswami (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 46
view all 3 authors...
The wet/dry spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall are governed by northward propagating boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO). Unlike for the Madden Julian Oscillation (e.g. RMM indices, Wheeler and Hendon in Mon Weather Rev 132:1917–1932, 2004), a low dimensional real-time monitoring and forecast verification metric for the MISO is not currently available. Here, for the first time, we present a real time monitoring index developed for identifying the amplitude and...
48 CitationsSource
#1Chidong Zhang (UM: University of Miami)H-Index: 30
#2Jon Gottschalck (NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)H-Index: 15
Last. Matthew C. WheelerH-Index: 39
view all 8 authors...
[1] The Madden-Julian oscillation poses great challenges to our understanding and prediction of tropical convection and the large-scale circulation. Several internationally coordinated activities were recently formed to meet the challenges from the perspectives of numerical simulations, prediction, diagnostics, and virtual and actual field campaigns. This article provides a brief description of these activities and their connections, with the motivation in part to encourage the next generation o...
119 CitationsSource
The importance of using dedicated high-end computing resources to enable high spatial resolution in global climate models and advance knowledge of the climate system has been evaluated in an international collaboration called Project Athena. Inspired by the World Modeling Summit of 2008 and made possible by the availability of dedicated high-end computing resources provided by the National Science Foundation from October 2009 through March 2010, Project Athena demonstrated the sensitivity of cli...
69 CitationsSource
#1A. K. SahaiH-Index: 19
#2S. SharmilaH-Index: 10
Last. Prasanth A. PillaiH-Index: 9
view all 11 authors...
The present study investigates the role of ocean– atmosphere coupling in improving the simulation and extended range prediction skill of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) using the NCEP CFS (version 2) vis-a-vis its atmospheric component GFS (version 2) forced with bias-corrected sea-surface temperature (SST) derived from CFS. Though the CFS free-run analysis shows dry bias over Indian land as compared to GFS, the interactive air–sea coupling in CFS has considerably improved the sim...
38 Citations
Cited By18
Newest
#1Priyanshi Singhai (IISc: Indian Institute of Science)
#2Shibin Balakrishnan (India Meteorological Department)
Last. Arindam Chakraborty (IISc: Indian Institute of Science)H-Index: 15
view all 4 authors...
South Asian monsoon exhibits multiscale spatiotemporal variability. Analyzing the nature and behavior of numerical weather forecast error associated with these space-time heterogeneities will eventually help in improving the models. We investigate the spatiotemporal error characteristics of the National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) Global Forecast System (NGFS) model over South Asian land and ocean separately. Although error grows with lead-time, it saturates within 3–5 d...
Source
#1Hari Prasad Kbrr (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)
#2Pentakota Sreenivas (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)
Last. D. Nagarjuna Rao (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 5
view all 8 authors...
Source
In the present study, we analyze the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model in three resolutions, T62, T126, and T382. We evaluated the performance of all three resolutions of CFSv2 in simulating the Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation (MISO) of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) by analyzing a suite of dynamic and thermodynamic parameters. Results reveal a slower northward propagation of MISO in all models with the characteristic northwest–southeast tilted rain band missing over India. The ...
Source
#1Sourabh Shrivastava (TERI University)H-Index: 3
#2S. C. Kar (National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting)H-Index: 14
Last. Anu Rani Sharma (TERI University)H-Index: 16
view all 3 authors...
Seasonal predictions of rainfall during the Indian monsoon from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been used to compute the prediction skill. Observed and model-predicted rainfall have been put in three categories (namely below-normal, above-normal, and near-normal) based on the value of interannual standard deviation. In this study, focus is on the rainfall in below-normal rainfall category over central India. Forecast products were evaluated against the observed rainfall data ...
Source
#1R. Mandal (Savitribai Phule Pune University)H-Index: 5
#2S. Joseph (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 13
Last. D. R. Pattanaik (India Meteorological Department)H-Index: 6
view all 7 authors...
Heat waves over India occur during the months of March-June. This study aims at the real-time monitoring and prediction of heat waves using a multi-model dynamical ensemble prediction system developed at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India. For this, a criterion has been proposed based on the observed daily gridded maximum temperature (Tmax) datasets, which can be used for real-time prediction as well. A heat wave day is identified when either (1) Tmax (a)≥ its climatological 95th pe...
Source
#1S. Saranya Ganesh (Savitribai Phule Pune University)H-Index: 1
#2A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
Last. R. Phani (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 2
view all 8 authors...
1 CitationsSource
#1Namendra Kumar Shahi (Allahabad University)H-Index: 1
#2Shailendra Rai (Allahabad University)H-Index: 3
Last. S. Abhilash (CUSAT: Cochin University of Science and Technology)H-Index: 11
view all 4 authors...
1 CitationsSource
#1Sourabh Shrivastava (TERI University)H-Index: 3
#2S. C. Kar (National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting)H-Index: 14
Last. Anu Rani Sharma (TERI University)H-Index: 16
view all 4 authors...
In the present study, skill of an extended range forecast system has been evaluated for identifying droughts over central India 20-days in advance. Rainfall forecasts from 44 ensemble members of the forecast system developed Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune have been used to prepare probabilistic rainfall forecasts. It is seen that the uncertainties in the forecasts (in terms of ensemble spread) increases from day-5 to day 20. As the focus of the study is for drought predict...
4 CitationsSource
#1Subhadeep Halder (GMU: George Mason University)H-Index: 11
#2Paul A. Dirmeyer (GMU: George Mason University)H-Index: 52
Last. James L. Kinter (GMU: George Mason University)H-Index: 40
view all 4 authors...
The impact of initial land-surface states on monthly to seasonal prediction skill of the Indian summer monsoon (June- September) is investigated using a suite of hindcasts made with the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) operational forecast model. The modern paradigm of land-atmosphere coupling is applied to quantify biases in different components of the land-atmosphere coupled system and their effect on systematic errors. Three sets of hindcasts are performed for the period spanning 198...
2 CitationsSource
#1A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
#2S. Sharmila (University of Melbourne)H-Index: 10
Last. A. K. Srivastava (India Meteorological Department)H-Index: 1
view all 9 authors...
The duration and extreme fluctuations of prolonged wet or dry spells associated with intraseasonal variability during extreme monsoon have devastating impacts on agrarian-based economy over Indian subcontinent. This study examines the potential predictability limit of intraseasonal transitions between rainy to non-rainy phases (i.e., active to break phases) or vice versa over central Indian region during extreme monsoon using very high-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) daily rainfall datasets. The pres...
Source