Constraints on the transient climate response from observed global temperature and ocean heat uptake

[1] Projections of future transient global temperature increase in climate models for a known forcing depend on the strength of the atmospheric feedbacks and the rate of transient ocean heat uptake. A Bayesian framework and an intermediate complexity climate model are used to calculate a probability density function (PDF) of the transient climate response (TCR), constrained by observations of global surface warming and ocean heat uptake. The PDF...