Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) of citations in scholarly literature: Dynamic qualities of “transient” and “sticky knowledge claims”

Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) is applied to the citation curves of articles in six journals and to all citable items in a single field of science (virology, 24 journals) to distinguish among the developmental trajectories in subpopulations. Can citation patterns of highly-cited papers be distinguished in an early phase as “fast-breaking” papers? Can “late bloomers” or “sleeping beauties” be identified? Most interesting, we find...