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Designing and exploring risk matrices with MACBETH

Published on Aug 21, 2015in International Journal of Information Technology and Decision Making 2.86
· DOI :10.1142/S0219622015500170
Mónica Duarte Oliveira14
Estimated H-index: 14
(IST: Instituto Superior Técnico),
Carlos A. Bana e Costa27
Estimated H-index: 27
(IST: Instituto Superior Técnico),
Diana F. Lopes3
Estimated H-index: 3
(IST: Instituto Superior Técnico)
Cite
Abstract
Risk matrices are adopted and recommended by many organizations, but the way they are usually constructed violates some basic theoretical principles, giving rise to inconsistent risk ratings. This paper studies ways in which multiple criteria and portfolio decision analyses can improve the design and deployment of risk matrices, using MACBETH (the "Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation TecHnique"). Firstly, it introduces 'value risk-matrices', built with MACBETH in the following modeling steps: (1) building a value measurement scale on each impact dimension and constructing a subjective probability scale, (2) additive aggregation of the value scales into a cumulative value scale, and (3) design of the value risk-matrix. The value and probability scores of risks are plotted in the matrix and its analysis informs the identification of mitigation actions, which can then be prioritized making use of the recent portfolio module of the MACBETH decision support system. Taken all together, the paper sketches a new modeling approach for Improving Risk Matrices (IRIS).
  • References (69)
  • Citations (4)
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References69
Newest
Published on May 22, 2015
Diana F. Lopes3
Estimated H-index: 3
,
Mónica Duarte Oliveira14
Estimated H-index: 14
,
C A Bana e Costa1
Estimated H-index: 1
Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. 'Value risk-matrices' (VRMs) are built with ...
Barbara Fasolo17
Estimated H-index: 17
(LSE: London School of Economics and Political Science),
Carlos A. Bana e Costa27
Estimated H-index: 27
(IST: Instituto Superior Técnico)
In organizational settings, options evaluation requires managers to express value judgments on multiple criteria. This research investigates the influence of decision makers' numeracy (ability to use appropriate numerical principles) and fluency (ability to express oneself in words) on their subjective experience of value elicitation as supported by two different techniques: direct rating and MACBETH. The former asks for value judgments to be expressed numerically, the latter non-numerically. Th...
Published on Mar 6, 2014 in ICORES (International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems)
Diana F. Lopes3
Estimated H-index: 3
(University of Lisbon),
Carlos A. Bana e Costa27
Estimated H-index: 27
(University of Lisbon)
+ 1 AuthorsAlec Morton16
Estimated H-index: 16
(University of Strathclyde)
Effective risk management typically requires the evaluation of multiple consequences of different sources of risk, and multicriteria value models have been used for that purpose. The value of mitigating a risk impact is often considered by risk managers as dependent on the levels of other impacts, therefore there is a need for procedures to identify and model these interactions within a value measurement framework. The Choquet Integral (CI) has been used for this purpose, and several studies in ...
Published on Jan 1, 2014in Group Decision and Negotiation 2.01
Carlos A. Bana e Costa27
Estimated H-index: 27
(Technical University of Lisbon),
João Carlos Lourenço6
Estimated H-index: 6
(Technical University of Lisbon)
+ 1 AuthorsJoão C. Bana e Costa3
Estimated H-index: 3
This article describes a socio-technical approach to public strategic planning. A multi-methodological framework with decision support systems (DSS) of problem structuring, multi-criteria decision analysis and strategic thinking was used in a decision conferencing process to support the key-players of the Pernambuco State Department of Social Development and Human Rights, in Brazil, to elaborate its 2008–2011 Multi-Annual Plan (PPA). This interactive process took place in June 2007, with thirty ...
Gabriel Jaime Correa Henao2
Estimated H-index: 2
,
Jose M. Yusta17
Estimated H-index: 17
(University of Zaragoza),
Roberto Lacal-Arántegui3
Estimated H-index: 3
Abstract This paper describes a methodology for risk identification and risk assessment in electricity infrastructures. The approach leverages risk maps and can be applied to general infrastructure networks. A semi-quantitative assessment strategy that incorporates the creation of risk charts within a risk management framework is also presented. This strategy engages an intuitive graphical representation to identify the most significant threats affecting infrastructure networks. As a result, it ...
Published on Feb 25, 2013
Gregory S. Parnell15
Estimated H-index: 15
,
Terry A. Bresnick3
Estimated H-index: 3
+ 1 AuthorsEric R. Johnson2
Estimated H-index: 2
Published on Jan 7, 2013
Carlos A. Bana e Costa27
Estimated H-index: 27
,
Lidia Angulo Meza13
Estimated H-index: 13
,
Mónica Duarte Oliveira14
Estimated H-index: 14
Este artigo apresenta o metodo MACBETH e descreve uma aplicacao para apoiar um grupo de participantes na iniciativa Rio Climate Challenge (evento paralelo a conferencia Rio+20) na selecao de medidas de mitigacao, a luz de varios criterios, visando limitar a concentracao de gases de efeito estufa na atmosfera em 450 ppm. O artigo inclui ainda uma listagem de outras aplicacoes no Brasil em contextos diversos, tanto publicos como privados.
Published on Mar 25, 2013
Gregory S. Parnell15
Estimated H-index: 15
,
Terry A. Bresnick3
Estimated H-index: 3
,
Steven N. Tani3
Estimated H-index: 3
A ONE-OF-A-KIND GUIDE TO THE BEST PRACTICES IN DECISION ANALYSIS Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the decision analysis literature and features both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling. Reader...
Published on Dec 1, 2012 in DSS (Decision Support Systems)
João Carlos Lourenço6
Estimated H-index: 6
(Technical University of Lisbon),
Alec Morton16
Estimated H-index: 16
(LSE: London School of Economics and Political Science),
Carlos A. Bana e Costa27
Estimated H-index: 27
(Technical University of Lisbon)
This paper addresses the problem of selecting a robust portfolio of projects in the context of limited resources, multiple criteria, different project interactions and several types of uncertainty. A portfolio of projects is considered an undoubtedly robust choice if for a given uncertainty domain that affects the costs and/or the benefits of the projects there is no other portfolio that does not cost more and simultaneously may provide more overall benefit. We present a new decision support sys...
Published on Oct 1, 2012in Annals of Operations Research 2.28
Ramiro Sanchez-Lopez2
Estimated H-index: 2
(Technical University of Lisbon),
Carlos A. Bana e Costa27
Estimated H-index: 27
(Technical University of Lisbon),
Bernard De Baets55
Estimated H-index: 55
(UGent: Ghent University)
The European Union’s efforts for poverty reduction are based on the principle of Sustainable Human Development. Meeting the terms of this principle entails the consideration of aspects of general interest, known as “cross-cutting issues”, at all levels of intervention. Cross-cutting issues comprise issues like human rights, gender equity, environmental concern, democracy as a social value, or the participation and empowerment of the beneficiaries of development. These issues concern social pheno...
Cited By4
Newest
Published on May 1, 2019in IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems 8.76
Chunbing Bao3
Estimated H-index: 3
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Dengsheng Wu10
Estimated H-index: 10
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Jianping LiXiaolei19
Estimated H-index: 19
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Risk measures play significant roles in determining the magnitude of risks. The traditional risk measures consider only the consequence (C)and the probability (P)and ignore the support of the knowledge behind to estimate Cand P. Several researchers have suggested adding knowledge as a third dimension in the risk measures. However, the issues of how to embed the dimension of knowledge in the risk measures to output an explicit expression of the risk measure and how to measure the stre...
Published on Mar 31, 2019in Journal of Risk Research 1.70
Chunbing Bao3
Estimated H-index: 3
,
Jie Wan1
Estimated H-index: 1
+ 1 AuthorsJianping LiXiaolei19
Estimated H-index: 19
AbstractRisk matrices have been proven as useful risk management tools, especially in the cases where data are not sufficient. Current usage of risk matrices in both literature and practice is related to single risk assessment. However, sometimes the decision makers care more about the overall risk consisting of several of single risks, which is in the scope of the aggregation of single risks measured by risk matrices. Unfortunately, two notions, namely, incomparability of different qualitative ...
Published on Jan 1, 2019in Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing 3.54
Lamia Berrah9
Estimated H-index: 9
,
Vincent Clivillé5
Estimated H-index: 5
+ 1 AuthorsGilles Mauris20
Estimated H-index: 20
By dealing with an overall manufacturing performance improvement context, we introduce in this paper the “improvement contribution” concept. A framework that integrates such a concept to the quantification of a multi-criteria interacting performance is proposed. The improvement contribution is defined as a new intelligent functionality that quantifies the impact of the improvement of a single (or a set of) mono-criterion performance(s) on the improvement of an overall performance. When performan...
Published on Jan 1, 2018in Risk Analysis 2.56
Jianping LiXiaolei19
Estimated H-index: 19
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Chunbing Bao3
Estimated H-index: 3
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Dengsheng Wu10
Estimated H-index: 10
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Risk matrices have been widely used as a risk evaluation tool in many fields due to their simplicity and intuitive nature. Designing a rating scheme, i.e., determining the number of ratings used in a risk matrix and assigning different ratings to different cells, is an essential part of risk matrix construction. However, most of the related literature has focused on applying a risk matrix to various fields, instead of researching how to design risk matrices. Based on the analysis of several curr...
Mónica Duarte Oliveira14
Estimated H-index: 14
(IST: Instituto Superior Técnico),
Diana F. Lopes3
Estimated H-index: 3
(IST: Instituto Superior Técnico),
Carlos A. Bana e Costa27
Estimated H-index: 27
(IST: Instituto Superior Técnico)
Risk matrices (RMs) are extensively used for risk management, namely in occupational health and safety (OHS) settings, despite suffering from well-known methodological problems. The IRIS approach (improving RMs) proposes to overcome those problems throughout the construction of value RMs (VRMs) that shift the basis of risk analysis from probability versus impact to probability versus “impact value.” This article describes the real-world participatory process of building a VRM for an OHS unit. Th...
Published on Jan 1, 2017
J.M. Hummel1
Estimated H-index: 1
(UT: University of Twente),
Mónica Duarte Oliveira14
Estimated H-index: 14
(IST: Instituto Superior Técnico)
+ 1 AuthorsMaarten Joost IJzerman39
Estimated H-index: 39
(UT: University of Twente)
The healthcare industry needs to carefully balance their research and development (R&D) project portfolios in terms of the diverse benefits, risks and costs of the technology they aim to develop. Although not common in healthcare, multi-criteria portfolio selection modelling can provide a structured and transparent approach to support decision-makers to share information on the performances of their R&D projects, to negotiate the necessary trade-offs to evaluate the projects and to arrive at a d...