Physics

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QUIET

Weather prediction

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History

Nature

Advances in numerical weather prediction represent a quiet revolution because they have resulted from a steady accumulation of scientific knowledge and technological advances over many years that, with only a few exceptions, have not been associated with the aura of fundamental physics breakthroughs. Nonetheless, the impact of numerical weather prediction is among the greatest of any area of physical science. As a computational problem, global weather prediction is comparable to the simulation of the human brain and of the evolution of the early Universe, and it is performed every day at major operational centres across the world. The cumulative progress of numerical weather prediction represents one of the most remarkable successes of modern science; here the many technological and scientific advances that have brought NWP to its present level are reviewed, as are the considerable challenges for the future. The outputs from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are pervasive throughout society, and now provide skillful forecasts a week into the future. Looking back several decades, the increase in forecasting accuracy has been remarkable, but it was gradual, amounting to about an extra day of skillful forecast lead time per decade. Peter Bauer and colleagues review the many technological and scientific advances that have brought NWP to its present level, and reveal the considerable challenges in the future, if the historical rate of improvement is to continue.

The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction