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Global food projections to 2020: implications for investment

Published on Jan 1, 1995
Mark W. Rosegrant57
Estimated H-index: 57
,
Mercedita C. Agcaoili-Sombilla4
Estimated H-index: 4
,
Nicostrato D. Perez6
Estimated H-index: 6
Abstract
This paper examines the global food security picture through 2020, using a model that incorporates 35 individual countries and regions and 17 commodities to estimate supply and demand for food. It concludes that if governments and the international community maintain current levels of commitment to agricultural growth through cost-effective investment in agricultural research, extension, irrigation and water development, human capital, and rural infrastructure, the world as a whole will not experience overwhelming pressure but food security in many developing countries, particularly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, will improve little. The paper also presents a more pessimistic scenario brought about by cuts in investment in agriculture and a more hopeful scenario based on increased investment.
  • References (8)
  • Citations (197)
References8
Newest
Published on Jan 1, 1999in The research reports
Robert E. Evenson39
Estimated H-index: 39
,
Carl E. Pray30
Estimated H-index: 30
,
Mark W. Rosegrant57
Estimated H-index: 57
India's investments in agricultural research, extension, and irrigation have made it one of the largest publicly funded systems in the world. But some policymakers who perceive that the benefits to research may be declining are advocating a cut back on public spending on research. This research report, which examines the effects of research and development on productivity in India, finds that India is still benefiting from these investments. The main sources of agricultural productivity growth i...
Published on Apr 1, 1996in World Development3.90
Derek Byerlee39
Estimated H-index: 39
(World Bank)
Abstract The contribution of modern varieties of cereal crops to increased productivity in the postGreen Revolution period is reviewed and the future role of hybrids and biotechnology discussed. Particular emphasis is given to the ways in which modern varieties may contribute to input efficiency and sustainability. Finally, economic and institutional issues in restructuring plant-breeding programs for the most efficient use of resources, in both the public and private sectors and at the national...
Published on Nov 1, 1994in Journal of International Development1.03
Mark W. Rosegrant57
Estimated H-index: 57
(IFPRI: International Food Policy Research Institute),
Prabhu Pingali40
Estimated H-index: 40
(IRRI: International Rice Research Institute)
In the past decade, declining rice prices, a slowdown in research expenditures and output growth, reduced irrigation investment and degradation of irrigated land, declining marginal returns to input use, and a stagnant technological yield frontier caused declining growth in rice yields per hectare in much of Asia. Future growth in rice productivity will increasingly come from improved management and efficiency of use of the resources utilized in rice production, in contrast to the rapid dissemin...
Published on Jan 1, 1993in Food Policy3.79
Mark W. Rosegrant57
Estimated H-index: 57
(IFPRI: International Food Policy Research Institute),
Mark Svendsen10
Estimated H-index: 10
(IFPRI: International Food Policy Research Institute)
Abstract This article addresses the implications of declining productivity growth for rice and wheat in Asia and parallel changes in irrigation investment patterns for future irrigation investment and management policies. The general economic case for increased public investment in new irrigation is examined, the potential for improving existing irrigation systems assessed, expansion of private irrigation investment discussed, and policy implications for irrigation investment and management stra...
Published on Jan 1, 1990
R.M. Bautista1
Estimated H-index: 1
The relationship between agricultural growth and food imports in developingcountries has recently attracted renewed interest among agricultural and trade economists. This is largely in reaction to the strong opposition by farmlobbies in the United States to development assistance programs abroad that promote foodgrain production allegedly to the detriment of U.S. agriculturalinterests,' which in turn was stimulated by the substantial fall in U.S. farm exports since 1981. The major food crops, in...
Published on Jan 1, 1990
P. Harrison1
Estimated H-index: 1
Published on Jan 1, 1989
H.E. Bouis1
Estimated H-index: 1
Published on Jan 1, 1985in Food Reviews International3.93
Per Pinstrup-Andersen35
Estimated H-index: 35
(IFPRI: International Food Policy Research Institute),
Peter Hazell46
Estimated H-index: 46
(IFPRI: International Food Policy Research Institute)
This article addresses some of the issues considered to be of great importance for continued success of the Green Revolution. The most recent data on its impact on food production are discussed first. Then follows a discussion of the impact on production fluctuation. Current evidence of the impact on poverty and nutrition is summarized in the third section. Recent research has shown that the multiplier or linkage effects of technological change may be very important for assuring a desirable path...
Published on Nov 1, 1984in Food Policy3.79
Leonardo Paulino3
Estimated H-index: 3
(IFPRI: International Food Policy Research Institute),
John W. Mellor18
Estimated H-index: 18
(IFPRI: International Food Policy Research Institute)
Abstract This article presents an overview of the general changes in the food situation in developing countries over the past two decades, and especially since the 1974 World Food Conference. Following an examination of trends in production, consumption and trade in basic food staples of Third World countries, the article looks at possible strategies for improving their food situation.
Cited By197
Newest
Published on Dec 1, 2019in Global Food Security5.46
Carmelia Alae-Carew (Lond: University of London), Frances A. Bird2
Estimated H-index: 2
(Lond: University of London)
+ 7 AuthorsRosemary Green10
Estimated H-index: 10
(Lond: University of London)
Abstract Against a backdrop of a rapidly changing food system and a growing population, characterisation of likely future diets in India can help to inform agriculture and health policies. We systematically searched six published literature databases and grey literature repositories up to January 2018 for studies projecting the consumption of foods in India to time points beyond 2018. The 11 identified studies reported on nine foods up to 2050: the available evidence suggests projected increases...
Published on May 1, 2019in International Journal of Hydrogen Energy4.08
Patrick Moriarty17
Estimated H-index: 17
,
Damon Honnery29
Estimated H-index: 29
Abstract Early forecasts for hydrogen's role in transport usually proved over-optimistic, with several seeing hydrogen as an important transport fuel by year 2010 or even much earlier. Over the past century, vehicular passenger transport has experienced hypergrowth in terms of task, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. For a variety of reasons, future decades may well see a significantly reduced global passenger transport task, as well as a widespread phasing-out of internal combustion engin...
Published on Nov 1, 2018in Environment International7.94
Emily J. Flies4
Estimated H-index: 4
(UTAS: University of Tasmania),
Barry W. Brook55
Estimated H-index: 55
(UTAS: University of Tasmania)
+ 1 AuthorsJessie C. Buettel3
Estimated H-index: 3
(UTAS: University of Tasmania)
Predicting future food demand is a critical step for formulating the agricultural, economic and conservation policies required to feed over 9 billion people by 2050 while doing minimal harm to the environment. However, published future food demand estimates range substantially, making it difficult to determine optimal policies. Here we present a systematic review of the food demand literature - including a meta-analysis of papers reporting average global food demand predictions - and test the ef...
Published on Sep 1, 2016in Studies on Russian Economic Development
S. V. Kiselev (MSU: Moscow State University), A. S. Strokov (MSU: Moscow State University), A. Yu. Belugin (MSU: Moscow State University)
This paper analyzes the possible impact of irrigation on the development of agriculture in the Volga River Basin and Black Sea Basin. Scenarios of the development of agriculture in Russia up to 2030 under the conditions of the expansion of irrigation and persistence of the current situation with irrigation have been calculated and analyzed based on the IMPACT-3 econometric partial equilibrium model.
Published on Jan 1, 2016
Rice is the most important staple food crop for people in developing countries, particularly for Asia and for the humid tropics across the globe. Almost 90 percent of rice is produced and consumed in Asia, and 96 percent in developing countries. Rice production has increased faster than population over the last three decades, in spite of being produced on small and marginal farms in countries with extreme population pressure and limited land resources. Most of the increase in production has come...
Published on Aug 1, 2015in Precision Agriculture3.36
K. Pavuluri2
Estimated H-index: 2
(VT: Virginia Tech),
Bee Khim Chim2
Estimated H-index: 2
(VT: Virginia Tech)
+ 3 AuthorsWade Everett Thomason17
Estimated H-index: 17
(VT: Virginia Tech)
Canopy spectral reflectance (CSR) is a cost-effective, rapid, and non-destructive remote sensing and selection tool that can be employed in high throughput plant phenotypic studies. The objectives of the current study were to evaluate the predictive potential of vegetative indices as a high-throughput phenotyping tool for nitrogen use efficiency in soft red winter wheat (SRWW) (Triticum aestivum L.) and determine the optimum growth stage for employing CSR. A panel of 281 regionally developed SRW...
Published on Jul 3, 2015in Aquaculture Economics & Management
Mimako Kobayashi2
Estimated H-index: 2
(World Bank),
Siwa Msangi22
Estimated H-index: 22
(IFPRI: International Food Policy Research Institute)
+ 3 AuthorsJames L. Anderson23
Estimated H-index: 23
(UF: University of Florida)
Seafood sector can contribute to the global food supply in an important way, and provide an important source of animal protein. Based on observed regional trends in seafood production and consumption and using a global, partial-equilibrium, multi-market model, this study investigates what the global seafood market may look like in 2030. The model projects that the total fish supply will increase from 154 million tons in 2011 to 186 million tons in 2030, with aquaculture entirely responsible for ...
Published on Jul 1, 2015in Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology0.83
Majeed Safa8
Estimated H-index: 8
(Lincoln University (New Zealand)),
Sandhya Samarasinghe16
Estimated H-index: 16
(Lincoln University (New Zealand)),
M. Nejat1
Estimated H-index: 1
(PNU: Payame Noor University)
An artificial neural network (ANN) approach was used to model the wheat production. From an extensive data collection involving 40 farms in Canterbury, New Zealand, the average wheat production was estimated at 9.9 t ha -1 . The final ANN model developed was capable of predicting wheat production under different conditions and farming systems using direct and indirect technical factors. After examining more than 140 different factors, 6 factors were selected as influential input into the model. ...
Published on Mar 1, 2015in Journal of Integrative Agriculture1.34
Yi He1
Estimated H-index: 1
(HUST: Huazhong University of Science and Technology),
Qiong Wang7
Estimated H-index: 7
(HUST: Huazhong University of Science and Technology)
+ 3 AuthorsGuang-yuan He1
Estimated H-index: 1
(HUST: Huazhong University of Science and Technology)
More than 20 years have passed since the first report on successful genetic transformation of wheat. With the establishment and improvement of transformation platform, great progresses have been made on wheat genetic transformation both on its fundamental and applied studies in China, especially driven by the National Major Project for Transgenic Organism Breeding, China, initiated in 2008. In this review, wheat genetic transformation platform improvement and transgenic research progresses inclu...