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Emerging risk – Conceptual definition and a relation to black swan type of events

Published on Dec 1, 2015in Reliability Engineering & System Safety4.04
· DOI :10.1016/j.ress.2015.07.008
Roger Flage12
Estimated H-index: 12
(University of Stavanger),
E.B. Abrahamsen and Terje Aven48
Estimated H-index: 48
(University of Stavanger)
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Abstract
The concept of emerging risk has gained increasing attention in recent years. The term has an intuitive appeal and meaning but a consistent and agreed definition is missing. We perform an in-depth analysis of this concept, in particular its relation to black swan type of events, and show that these can be considered meaningful and complementary concepts by relating emerging risk to known unknowns and black swans to unknown knowns, unknown unknowns and a subset of known knowns. The former is consistent with saying that we face emerging risk related to an activity when the background knowledge is weak but contains indications/justified beliefs that a new type of event (new in the context of that activity) could occur in the future and potentially have severe consequences to something humans value. The weak background knowledge among other things results in difficulty specifying consequences and possibly also in fully specifying the event itself; i.e. in difficulty specifying scenarios. Here knowledge becomes the key concept for both emerging risk and black swan type of events, allowing for taking into consideration time dynamics since knowledge develops over time. Some implications of our findings in terms of risk assessment and risk management are pointed out.
  • References (14)
  • Citations (27)
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References14
Newest
Published on Aug 13, 2014
E.B. Abrahamsen and Terje Aven48
Estimated H-index: 48
(University of Stavanger)
1. Introduction, 2. The risk concept, 3. Variation, knowledge, uncertainty, surprises and black swans, 4. Risk assessment, 5. Risk management
Published on Jun 1, 2014in Food Control4.25
Pieter Wielinga1
Estimated H-index: 1
(DTU: Technical University of Denmark),
Vibeke Frøkjær Jensen14
Estimated H-index: 14
(DTU: Technical University of Denmark)
+ 1 AuthorsJørgen Schlundt17
Estimated H-index: 17
(DTU: Technical University of Denmark)
Emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in the animal reservoir forms a risk for human health. The use of antimicrobials in animals is the major cause of development of AMR in bacteria in animals. In the 1990s, the use of antimicrobials in animals, particularly as a growth promoter, led to alarming levels of AMR in many countries. This paper analyses the emergence of AMR in Denmark in terms of contributing factors that formed fertile ground from which AMR could develop. New technologies in c...
Published on Jan 1, 2014in Reliability Engineering & System Safety4.04
E.B. Abrahamsen and Terje Aven48
Estimated H-index: 48
(University of Stavanger),
Bodil S. Krohn1
Estimated H-index: 1
There are many ways of understanding, assessing and managing the unforeseen and (potential) surprises. The dominating one is the risk approach, based on risk conceptualisation, risk assessment and risk management, but there are also others, and in this paper we focus on two; ideas from the quality discourse and the use of the concept of mindfulness as interpreted in the studies of High Reliability Organisation (HRO). The main aim of the paper is to present a new integrated perspective, a new way...
Published on Aug 1, 2013in Safety Science3.62
E.B. Abrahamsen and Terje Aven48
Estimated H-index: 48
(University of Stavanger)
In recent years there has been much focus on the so-called black swans in relation to risk management and decision making under uncertainty. A key issue has been the ability of risk assessment and probability theory to capture the black swans. In this paper we carry out an in-depth analysis of what a black swan means in relation to risk, uncertainty and probability: is a black swan just an extreme event with a very low probability or is it a more surprising event in some sense, for example an un...
Published on Jan 1, 2013
Foro Económico Mundial1
Estimated H-index: 1
Published on Mar 1, 2012in Reliability Engineering & System Safety4.04
E.B. Abrahamsen and Terje Aven48
Estimated H-index: 48
(University of Stavanger)
Abstract This paper reviews the definition and meaning of the concept of risk. The review has a historical and development trend perspective, also covering recent years. It is questioned if, and to what extent, it is possible to identify some underlying patterns in the way risk has been, and is being understood today. The analysis is based on a new categorisation of risk definitions and an assessment of these categories in relation to a set of critical issues, including how these risk definition...
Published on Jan 1, 2012
Richard G. Little6
Estimated H-index: 6
(SC: University of Southern California)
Published on Oct 1, 2011in Safety Science3.62
E.B. Abrahamsen and Terje Aven48
Estimated H-index: 48
(University of Stavanger),
Ortwin Renn50
Estimated H-index: 50
(University of Stuttgart),
Eugene A. Rosa34
Estimated H-index: 34
(WSU: Washington State University)
In this paper we review a set of frequently used risk definitions and analyze their ontological status, i.e. to what extent risk exists in itself independent of any specific assessor. According to some prevailing risk perspectives in the social sciences, risk exists as objective states of the world, but for other common risk perspectives the status of risk is not as clear, for example if risk is viewed as uncertainty about and severity of the consequences of an activity with respect to something...
Cited By27
Newest
Published on Nov 1, 2019in Reliability Engineering & System Safety4.04
Rafael Raoni2
Estimated H-index: 2
(UFRJ: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro),
Argimiro Resende Secchi14
Estimated H-index: 14
(UFRJ: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro)
Abstract Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), characterized by process-behaviours modelling and event likelihood calculation, has great importance for quantitative risk evaluation. PSA presents some difficulties for implementation, mainly when the analysis of a dynamic process is required. In this work, a set of procedures to formulate and solve Probabilistic Dynamic System Problems (PDSPs) is presented. Such procedures explain how events should be modelled and connected with each other to bui...
Published on Apr 24, 2019
Riana Steen3
Estimated H-index: 3
(BI Norwegian Business School),
Riana Steen
This paper presents an alternative and broader security risk perspective, incorporating uncertainty, as a two-dimensional combination of (1) threat (Th) on value (Vl), (2) vulnerability (Vu) given coping capabilities (Cc), and associated uncertainties U (will the threat scenario occur? and to what degree are we vulnerable?). Moreover, this work attempts to provide an integrated approach to the safety and security fields. We look closely into the issues related to Safety-I, Safety-II and security...
This study examines the importance of basic educational, organizational and operational structures of interaction under risk, and how these vary with competence level within an organization. The purpose of this study is to examine whether there are any basic components that can provide further insight into how competence for interaction under risk can be developed and implemented. The first aim was, therefore, to examine the relationship between components of the basic educational, organizationa...
Published on May 4, 2019in Journal of Risk Research1.70
Tom Jansen1
Estimated H-index: 1
(PHRI: Public Health Research Institute),
Liesbeth Claassen1
Estimated H-index: 1
(PHRI: Public Health Research Institute)
+ 1 AuthorsDanielle R M Timmermans1
Estimated H-index: 1
(PHRI: Public Health Research Institute)
AbstractIn environmental health science, the concept ‘uncertain risk’ refers to situations in which epistemic uncertainties prevent definitive statements about the presence or existence of risk. The concept is difficult for risk communication and may easily lead to miscommunications and misunderstanding. This research investigated how the concept of uncertain risk is understood by different societal groups. We conducted in-depth interviews with the general public (N = 40), and online open-ended ...
Published on May 1, 2019in Risk Analysis2.56
Julie Shortridge6
Estimated H-index: 6
(VT: Virginia Tech),
Janey Smith Camp7
Estimated H-index: 7
(Vandy: Vanderbilt University)
Published on Apr 30, 2019in Environment Systems and Decisions
Khara Grieger12
Estimated H-index: 12
,
Khara Deanne Grieger (NCSU: North Carolina State University)+ 2 AuthorsMark Borsuk
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) as a solar radiation management (SRM) technology may provide a cost-effective means of avoiding some of the worst impacts of climate change, being perhaps orders of magnitude less expensive than greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. At the same time, SAI technologies have deeply uncertain economic and environmental impacts and complex ethical, legal, political, and international relations ramifications. Robust governance strategies are needed to manage the ma...
Published on Mar 28, 2019in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases4.49
Sadie J. Ryan24
Estimated H-index: 24
(UF: University of Florida),
Colin J. Carlson9
Estimated H-index: 9
(UMD: University of Maryland, College Park)
+ 1 AuthorsLeah R. Johnson16
Estimated H-index: 16
(VT: Virginia Tech)
Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if ...
Published on Mar 1, 2019in Safety Science3.62
María Luisa Cantonnet Jordi1
Estimated H-index: 1
(UPV/EHU: University of the Basque Country),
Juan Carlos Aldasoro1
Estimated H-index: 1
(UPV/EHU: University of the Basque Country),
Jon Iradi4
Estimated H-index: 4
(UPV/EHU: University of the Basque Country)
Abstract Background There are not many studies in the literature related to New and Emerging Risks (NERs) management in Small and Medium Sized enterprises (SMEs). This study aims to address this gap by focusing on the case of Spain. The objectives are to explore whether Spanish SMEs have procedures related to the management of NERs and whether there are differences in the management of NERs depending on the size of the enterprise. Methods An exploratory study was carried out by extracting the sa...
Published on Feb 7, 2019
Igor Lutoshkin2
Estimated H-index: 2
(Ulyanovsk State University),
Svetlana Lipatova (Ulyanovsk State University)+ 2 AuthorsMargarita Yardaeva (Ulyanovsk State University)
The formalization of the principles “just in time”, “design to cost” and “risks management” is described in the form of a mathematical model. These principles are chosen on the basis of the analysis of the management methodologies used in the practice of industrial enterprises. The model is recommended to be used in the design of information systems to support management decisions. The model can be built on the basis of different methods: stochastic, parametric, heuristic, etc. The proposed appr...
Joseph Cuthbertson , Jose Manuel Rodriguez-Llanes8
Estimated H-index: 8
+ 1 AuthorsFrank Archer13
Estimated H-index: 13
Identification and profiling of current and emerging disaster risks is essential to inform effective disaster risk management practice. Without clear evidence, readiness to accept future threats is low, resulting in decreased ability to detect and anticipate these new threats. A consequential decreased strategic planning for mitigation, adaptation or response results in a lowered resilience capacity. This study aimed to investigate threats to the health and well-being of societies associated wit...
View next paperConcerns, challenges, and directions of development for the issue of representing uncertainty in risk assessment.